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Gordon Chang warns China could see “real problems” from Iran’s oil freeze

With traffic in the Strait of Hormuz almost at a standstill, China’s reliance on Iranian oil could cause “real problems” within two months if the crisis continues, one expert said.

Gatestone Institute senior fellow Gordon Chang joined FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo on “Mornings with Maria” to explore how the escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could reverberate through China’s fragile, foreign-dependent economy.

OIL PRICES CONTINUE AFTER ATTACKS KILL IRAN’S TOP LEADER, TANKER HIT NEAR STRAIT OF HORMUZ

An oil tanker in port in the Strait of Hormuz. (Giuseppe CacaceI/AFP via Getty Images)

Chang noted that a large part of Iranian unloaded crude, important for its private “tea” refiners, usually passes through the narrow waterway, where ships are now mostly stationed north and south of the Strait.

“Most of that oil… is actually going to China trying to get somewhere between… 15% and 23% of its offshore oil from Iran, and that oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz,” Chang said.

He added that while Beijing has various resources, the loss of heavily discounted barrels comes at a vulnerable time for industries that depend on cheap energy.

“This will go through the motions, and I suspect you will see real problems in about two months in China if this situation continues,” Chang said.

Hayman Capital Management founder and CEO Kyle Bass also joined FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo to discuss the market’s reaction and the broader energy shocks that are sweeping supply chains around the world.

OIL MARKETS FALL AS IRAN GOES TO CRITICAL HORMUZ SHIPPING LANE, REPORT SAYS

Bass pointed to insurance withdrawals and strategic weighting of the choke point, warning that even a temporary disruption could send first-month crude prices skyrocketing.

“About one-third of the world’s marine pollution flows into that port every day. 50 percent of what is imported from China goes into that problem every day. And right now, things are not going well,” Bass said.

“If 10 million barrels are lost or delayed for a week, there’s no telling where the front could go,” Bass added.

With insurance backing out, LNG shipments disrupted and tanker traffic frozen, the crisis underscores how the five-mile zone can cripple the world’s second-largest economy.

“We are at risk of oil prices going up here,” Bass said.

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