Immigration cuts are affecting Orange County’s opinion of Trump, survey finds

In a troubling sign for Republicans heading into the upcoming season, Orange County voters are complaining about President Trump and his immigration campaign in particular.

A new poll released by UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology shows Trump’s support among Orange County voters has dropped to 35%, with 65% of participants saying they disapprove of the president’s performance. His immigration policies have proven to be very unpopular, with six out of ten citizens disapproving of his actions, according to the survey, which is a stark contrast to the region’s historical situation on the issue.

And, experts say, the results of the polls in this district – widely seen as a bellwether in recent years – may not bode well for Republicans already facing a battle heading into the November midterms when voters, by and large, tend to favor the incumbent party.

While Democrats carried the state in the recent presidential election, Orange County remains a purple state and home to some of the most contested congressional districts in recent years.

Those races were expected to be less competitive this year after California voters approved Democratic-backed redistricting that was expected to turn several seats green.

“Trump is taking action and Republicans in Congress are not against it,” said Matt Lesenyie, an assistant professor of political science at Cal State Long Beach. “I think it’s too easy to say that Republicans control all of Congress and the presidency, so if I don’t like something the party should be blamed.”

The administration’s handling of immigration and deportation laws is not well known to Orange County voters, many of whom are immigrants or have family members born elsewhere.

More than 70% of respondents to the poll said they oppose immigration laws in schools and hospitals and about 63% oppose using the US military to help with deportations. About 64% of survey respondents oppose ending birthright citizenship, and a majority oppose expanding the border wall.

Two policies stand out, with 81% of respondents in favor of condemning people smugglers and 61% supporting the government restricting people from countries it deems dangerous.

The poll also showed a majority of respondents supported a more legal approach to deporting undocumented immigrants. That sentiment is strongest among Democrats at 88% and independents at 71%. At the same time, 54% of Republicans responded to the polls in favor of deportation, according to the poll.

Jon Gould, dean of UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology, said Trump’s disapproval rating is surprising given the political divide in Orange County.

“This purple district seems to have broad agreement that immigration is more beneficial than it is, and that people don’t want enforcement, but they want some enforcement,” he said.

Gould said he expects views on immigration to have little effect on support for the law, given that it has been nearly nine months since the arrests began last summer. But the results point to a large number of young people supporting immigrants and protesting the way the administration has deported them.

Orange County has become culturally diverse in recent decades with Asian Americans making up 24% of the population and Latinos making up about 34%. About 30% of the state’s residents were born outside the United States, according to census data.

Notably, independent voters’ views on immigration are at odds with Democrats’, according to the survey.

“It may be here that Trump’s enforcement actions shut people down and they don’t come back,” Gould said. “It seems that they are not really strict, some would say that the policies have changed people.”

Voters’ positions on immigration differ significantly from the region’s historical views on the topic.

In 1986, during a major immigration crackdown, Orange County residents arrived at 6 a.m. on East Chapman Avenue in Orange to cheer on agents as they rounded up more than 100 undocumented job seekers. They waved signs with the message: “Don’t Let the USA Become a Third World Nation.”

Later, the district was more supportive of Prop. 187 – the so-called “Save Our State” – which sought to deny almost all federal social services to those who are not in the country legally. That measure, passed in 1994, never took effect and ushered in a series of heavy losses for the GOP in California.

Now, middle-class Americans, Latinos and other voters, who may have initially supported Trump’s campaign to target immigrants who have committed crimes, have expressed frustration with the way the raids have been carried out.

“Some people say ‘I like the idea of ​​going after criminals, but I don’t agree with raiding schools and targeting grandmothers, it doesn’t look like you are picking up those you said you would pick up in the campaign,'” said Lesenyie. “They are a diversion and there are a lot of them in Orange County.”

For Sandra De Anda, network coordinator for the Orange County Rapid Response Network, which connects immigrants to legal aid and uses a hotline to report sightings to ICE, the survey results are a source of pride.

It’s something she had always hoped for growing up in Santa Ana in the 1990s in a historically Latino and Cambodian neighborhood where immigration agents often targeted residents.

“It’s great to see the support of our immigrant and refugee communities. It’s been amazing to see how Orange County has changed over the last decade,” he said, adding that he sees the work as just beginning.

“Now is the time to do a lot of movement work, to do a lot of policy work, because those officers will continue to outrun Trump,” he said.