There have been times throughout history when one event was so important that it became national news. Think of the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the terrorist attacks of 9/11 or the killing of Osama bin Laden ten years later.
In Mexico, the killing of drug kingpin Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, in a Mexican security operation in the state of Jalisco last weekend was one of those moments. The successful identification of Mexico’s most violent and powerful drug lord is arguably the country’s biggest achievement since security forces recaptured the infamous Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán a decade ago.
Crucially, though, Mencho’s death may make the drug-trafficking problem worse than it is today.
Mencho was the definition of a ruthless criminal who shows no mercy to his enemies. Like El Chapo before him, Mencho grew up poor in a rural area. He immigrated to the United States in the 1980s, but was arrested three times on drug charges, imprisoned in California for three years and deported to Mexico in the early 1990s. Back in his country, he joined the local police, and was soon linked to his brother-in-law Abigael González Valencia, who was a major player in the drug trade and raised the ladder of the so-called Milenio Cartel.
After the organization’s leadership was beheaded by the Mexican security forces, Mencho took it upon himself to establish a new group that would be known as the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). In just a few years, this criminal organization began to compete with El Chapo’s Sinaloa Cartel, until it was overtaken after Chapo’s former organization fought it in 2024.
A Pyrrhic victory
As one might expect, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is in a happy mood these days. Not only is the most dangerous criminal in the country not sentenced, but the brave operation helps to strengthen his case that Mexico listens to the demands of President Donald Trump to take strong action against the country’s criminal networks. Sheinbaum has gone to great lengths to meet the Trump administration’s expectations by green-lighting more CIA aerial surveillance of cartel-infested areas, allowing a small team of American military advisers to enter the country for training and sending more than 90 high-level drug operatives to the United States for prosecution.
One of those workers was none other than Mencho’s brother. Cooperation between the US and Mexico on counter-narcotics operations has also been strengthened; The White House has confirmed that the United States provided intelligence to the Mexican army during Mencho’s capture.
That’s all good news. Still, it’s hard to celebrate when news of Mencho’s death overshadowed the CJNG’s revenge, which was swift, chaotic and deadly. Cartel gunmen have essentially turned much of Mexico into a war zone, blocking highways with burnt-out cars, burning down shops, forcing tourists to shut down in the beautiful city of Puerto Vallarta and wreaking havoc in Guadalajara, one of Mexico’s largest cities. At least 25 Mexican soldiers were killed in the ensuing retaliation. The US Embassy in Mexico City has advised Americans in the country to take refuge in the area.
Bad omens
It is not the first time that Mexico has taken a drug lord out of the arena, but it found out in a short time that deciding the leadership of a company does not automatically mean the collapse of the organization. And even if it were possible, rival gangs would seek to take advantage of the situation by closing the gap, shutting down the lucrative drug trade and carving up their empires. Therein lies the problem with war on drugs thinking: Although this approach can bring about winning governments and give politicians good electoral advantages, the sense of victory is short-lived. Ultimately, criminal organizations will adapt to protect their shares in the multi-billion dollar market, use greater levels of violence against the government and continue to break the already chaotic cartel environment.
One does not have to look very far for an example. After one of El Chapo’s sons conspired to kidnap Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, a top leader in the Sinaloa Cartel, in the summer of 2024, the entire organization entered into a civil war that continues to this day. With their leader imprisoned, El Mayo’s sicarios, or hit men, declared war on the followers of Chapo’s sons in an attempt to retaliate by treachery and strengthen their position in the wider organization. The result has been bloodshed in the state of Sinaloa, with thousands killed, thousands missing and violence reaching such a level that the Mexican government looks hopeless, if not more.
Moral of the story: When you cut off the head of an octopus, the tentacles grow out of control.
It is too early to predict whether CJNG will enter a civil war like its rival Sinaloa. Normally, one of Mencho’s siblings or sons would take over to ensure a smooth transition, but they are all locked up. If the Mexican government was wise, it would prepare for a situation where the Mencho administration turns its guns and tries to become the new boss. In this scenario, the CJNG will splinter into smaller, warring factions, producing disgusting levels of bloodshed as potential successors try to prove their mettle. This would be the exact opposite of what Sheinbaum and Mexico need right now, especially when Trump continues to bring up the idea of sending US troops to do the job.
How the Mexican government navigates this difficult time may determine whether Mencho’s performance is a hopeful revolution or a short-term success.
Daniel DePetris is a partner at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune. ©2026 Chicago Tribune. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency.
