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No one could have predicted.
But you could make a lot of money if you did.
In an unprecedented move, the United States Senate voted unanimously to ban senators and staff from playing in the prediction markets.
“This is a threat to national security,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y. “The very possibility of a member’s vote being swayed by betting is reason enough to close the door.”
SENATE SILENTLY PREVENTS LAWMAKERS FROM BETTING IN SECURITY MARKETS
The Senate voted unanimously to ban its members and staff from betting on speculative markets. (Stock)
You can’t predict the future. But now in the Senate, you can’t even bet on it.
Mostly real world events.
Like the stock market might crash. The end of the economy. War. Terrorism.
And who would wear what dress to the Met Gala.
SEN DAVE MCCORMICK: SPECTACULAR MARKETS ARE POPULAR. WASHINGTON MUST HOLD
Of particular concern on Capitol Hill are the potential bets on the legislation’s fate. Or confirmation of nominees. There are two concerns that speculation in prediction markets can bias political outcomes.
“Participating in any way in the prediction market or trying to make bets where we may have inside information undermines the confidence our members have in us,” said Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio.
Moreno pushed to change the senatorial rules. Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Calif., amended Moreno’s proposal to include Senate aides.
This applies only to the Senate. In the meantime. The house is playing catch up.
“Any place where your role in Congress has the potential to benefit an individual, I think it needs to be tightly controlled,” said Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., when asked about the prospects for a similar measure in the House.
Remember that under the Constitution, the House and Senate can make their own rules.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y., said “we must not allow Congress to turn into a casino.” (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The Senate’s strategy comes weeks after the Feds raided a US special forces operation that had access to classified information — and then bet on the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
Virginia US Senator Mark Moran has made a bet that he will run for office. Over time Moran cashed in on his proposition after jumping into the race.
“Our members should know that our only guiding light is what is best for our country. What is best for the people of our states. And what is best for the United States of America,” said Moreno.
“We must never allow Congress to become a casino,” Schumer said. “The mere possibility that Members may influence their votes as a result of betting is reason enough to prevent Members from interfering in the prediction markets.”
But Schumer wants the ban on prediction markets extended to the top branch. The New York Democrat says the Trump Administration is “showing such a troubling relationship with corruption and self-dealing.”
CRIMINALS PASS MEASURES PREVENT LAWYERS FROM SPECIFYING
This brings us to another area where many Congressional Democrats want to get rid of the executive branch: the stock market.
But here’s the problem. Congress has paid lip service to enacting its own law banning lawmakers and their aides from trading stocks. But neither the House nor the Senate have used the board’s prohibition.
It is a static matter. And it has been for years.
“I have sent a bill to prohibit insider trading by Members of Congress and I will sign it tomorrow,” ordered former President Obama during his State of the Union address in January 2012.
“Let’s make sure again that Members of Congress cannot profit from corruption through insider information,” President Trump announced during his State of the Union address in February.
Well, it’s almost the middle of 2026 and Congress isn’t quite there yet.
President Donald Trump expressed a desire to “ensure that Members of Congress cannot profit from corruption through the use of insider information” in his State of the Union address. (Jabin Botsford/Getty Images)
Late Rep. Louise Slaughter, DN.Y., and Prep. Brian Baird, D-Wash., was the most ardent proponent of the ban on stock trading in Congress – since 2006. Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, made hundreds of stock trades in 1999 and 2000 that drew attention.
“If there’s a way to make a profit out of that, maybe somebody has figured out a way to do it,” Baird said, “And it’s illegal.”
Congress finally passed the STOCK Act in 2012. It stands for “Stop Trading On Congressional Knowledge.” There have been concerns that the lawmakers are knowledgeable about financial, economic and political intelligence. Therefore, they were able to buy or sell shares in the information corresponding to “insider trading.”
But the STOCK Act didn’t stop lawmakers from playing on Wall Street. It simply requires more financial disclosure about when lawmakers and aides trade stocks.
TRUMP TAKES JAB AT PELOSI BY NAME OVER STOCK TRADING HISTORY.
President Obama’s 2012 petition certainly helped lawmakers pass the STOCK Act a few days later. But it was not a ban on “insider trading” as the former president suggested. This just added more light.
The sustainability of the stock exchange is puzzling some lawmakers.
“I don’t know why it was such a challenge in the house,” said Rep. James Walkinshaw, D-Va. “I think any Member who says they should be able to trade shares is absolutely wrong. I think it undermines trust in the institution. Even for those members who do not trade inside information.”
House Judiciary Committee Chairman Brian Steil, R-Wis., has a bill to ban stock exchanges from lawmakers.
“If you want to day trade, go to Wall Street. Come to Washington and lead this country,” said Steil.
“If you want to day trade, go to Wall Street,” said House Judiciary Committee Chairman Brian Steil, R-Wis., (Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)
But this law no longer exists. It partly goes back to the Democrats’ push to extend any ban on Congressional stock trading in the executive branch. That’s something many Republicans are reluctant to do.
“There are no reasons and reasons to allow the president of any party or the vice president of any party, to be able to participate in the stock exchange when they have the incredible power of the office of the president, the vice president and the executive branch in their hands,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y.
Rep. Yassamin Ansari, D-Ariz., believes the issue of stock trading is emerging. He doubts that voters will face his colleague’s market job for a long time.
“We know that there are many partners who are still trading stocks. I think the American public is more aware of this topic now. And this is not very popular. So I think the tide is changing and it will be unacceptable for any member to support it,” said Ansari. “I think a lot of people have more information. So what a Congressman was able to get away with even five years ago is not possible today.”
As with most things when it comes to political ethics, there is absolutely nothing wrong with it. But the understanding of unworthiness. The public holds Congress low to begin with. Many voters believe that the “ruling class” has special access to information that enables them to game the system to their economic advantage. That lack of trust is likely to grow as long as Congress fails to police its own.
Although we cannot predict the future, people can certainly shape it. Congress has many tools at its disposal to change that future. The question is whether the law enforcement will bend that luck in their way.
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So will Congress approve a ban on stock trading? The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.
In other words, don’t bet on it.
