The LA Mayoral race speculation is changing everything with Nithya Raman and Spencer Pratt
Polymarket reports that Nithya Raman will run for LA mayor in November after a recent drop in the polls put her in Spencer Pratt’s 1%, sparking fury from the right.
With nearly 78% of the votes counted as of Sunday morning, Karen Bass remains comfortably in first place with 34.8% of the vote. But the battle for second place is very intense.
Reality TV star Pratt has 27.3% of the vote, while Raman has increased to 26.2%, leaving the candidates separated by just 7,494 votes, according to the Associated Press.
It comes amid renewed questions about the incredibly slow election count in the Golden State, where the Trump administration and local prosecutors are investigating allegations of voter fraud.
The drop in ratings comes after Pratt maintained a second-place lead for several days following Tuesday’s election.
Prediction market Polymarket now projects Raman has a 99% chance of advancing, while Pratt’s chances have dropped to 1%.
A similar pattern emerged in Kalshi, where Raman’s probability increased to 97% and Pratt’s decreased to 3%.
From May 11 to Election Night Tuesday, the former TV star has more than a 75% chance of making it out of the primary, according to betting platform Kalshi.
Election officials still have about 200,000 votes left to count, most of which are votes that normally go to candidates.
Another group is expected to leave on Sunday evening. A major change in racing has transformed the betting markets.
A bettor who placed a $100 bet on Raman earlier in the week when he was given about a 20% chance of advancing would have won a few hundred dollars if he got a runaway spot.
Now, however, the potential payout on that same $100 bet had shrunk significantly as traders increasingly viewed his run as a certainty.
A $100 bet on Spencer Pratt could pay more than $1,000 if he pulls out an upset win. Even just days after Election Night, Pratt was widely considered the favorite to claim the runner-up spot.
The betting markets had given him a strong advantage weeks before the election, and he continued to lead as the first rounds of vote counting were reported.
However, since then, each new batch has gradually lost its lead.
The turnover has accelerated in the past few days as Raman continues to gain ground with each poll update, prompting bettors to quickly buy back into the race.
The perceived comparison could have a big impact on the November election.
Bass already has enough support to advance, but a run against Raman will create an all-Democratic contest between two candidates with very different views on the city’s future.
If Raman were to come forward, it would pit two of his former collaborators – he and Bass – against each other.
The Trump administration and the Los Angeles federal attorney general are conducting multiple election fraud investigations with the FBI as questions swirl about the undercounting of votes in California.
First US Attorney Bill Essayli said Friday morning that he is working with the Department of Justice “to conduct a comprehensive study of California’s voter demographics.”
