Maybe Portugal wasn’t the juggernaut we all thought before the 1-1 draw with Congo DR.
Perhaps we didn’t thank Colombia enough before finishing their first two games leading Group K.
Maybe none of those ideas are true.
Either way, we’ll find out when the two play each other on Saturday’s sectional.
The bookies give the limit Select das Quinasjuiced at -115 on a three-way money line, while The Tricolor can be taken at a price as long as +320 odds at bet365.
The dynamic is not always true, but for context, let’s talk about the games of both teams and DR Congo.
Prediction of Portugal vs. Colombia, the best bet
Portugal, playing a game-based game, had the ball at their feet for 75 percent of the game despite registering one limited shot on target. DR Congo defended them well and hampered their creativity by blocking passing lanes and denying Portugal space between the lines.
And apart from the advantage of having the ball, nothing else about the box value was good; the Portuguese fell short of expected goals by 0.87 to 0.67.
This result was one of the biggest surprises in the group stage before Portugal blew away Uzbekistan 5-0.
On the other hand, we saw Colombia, the attacking team, beat DR Congo 9-1 and win 1-0. However, they did not win the game, as it is Leopards we used the same compact mid-block that disrupted Portugal.
This was a wasteful display, and the Colombians will not be given the same luxury against Portugal. Select das Quinas heading into this crucial game tied with Spain for having the highest ball possession average in the World Cup, completing the most second passes per game.
This technical defense is led by Rúben Dias who anchors the defense, João Neves and Vitinha who control the tempo in midfield and Bernardo Silva who works between the lines. Neither DR Congo nor Uzbekistan have explored the Columbian bloc in the way that this group is able to do.
Colombia’s effective approach depends on Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez getting quick breaks. Portugal will reduce that threat by pressing for space in midfield and pressing hard to prevent Colombia from turning their defense into forwards.
For example, their massacre in Uzbekistan showed how they can unleash waves of attacks that force opponents deeper, reducing their ability to fight.
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And lest we forget Cristiano Ronaldo, who is 41 years old, is Portugal’s highest-ranked player in FotMob’s rankings. He recently scored a goal and won the Player of the Match, becoming the first player to score in six World Cups. His movement in the box draws defenders and creates space for runners from the middle of the field as there was no one else on the field in this game.
If Portugal strikes first, Colombia will be forced to get out of the middle of the block and have an open game, using the Portuguese attack on a silver plate.
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Many believe that the market is playing Portugal after Ronaldo’s football. Those experts say that the South Americans began to be despised in the market after not only being a satisfactory team in this tournament, but they have played 28 games without defeat in the last few years.
I’m still clinging to firepower over composure in a must-win situation for what could be Ronaldo’s last kick in the can.
GAME: Portugal (-115, FanDuel)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He focuses on selections that reflect market value while tracking trends to minimize risk.
