The 108th PGA Championship was a round of musical chairs: blink and there’s a new leader.
No one was able to create any separation from the pocket due to brutal pin placement, laser-fast greens and windy conditions that caused play problems.
Each round ended in a tight dead heat, and with so much to be decided in Sunday’s final round at Aronimink Golf Club, it’s good to support the players with pedigree.
PGA Championship final round prediction, best bet
Yes, Ludwig Aberg has won just twice on the PGA Tour, but he entered the tournament at fifth-shortest odds at 16/1. After opening the first round with a plus-2 72, Aberg clawed his way back to a five-way tie for second place at 4-under after three rounds, trailing third-round leader Alex Smalley by just two shots.
The Swede shot a 2-under 68 on Saturday to get there. He is tied for first in strokes gained and was the only player leading the way in tee-to-green metrics in the third round, which is very important on a course that features intimidating greens and more than 170 bunkers.
In fact, these course conditions have made elite hitting more important than elite putting, and no player in the field understands it better right now.
Aberg again showed resilience in the second round by making one bogey while hitting 17 greens in regulation. He started his run into Saturday with four birdies in the last seven holes of that round.
In terms of building momentum, Aberg was entering the PGA Championship, having finished no worse than 13 (at the Masters) in his last five appearances.
At 6/1 odds to claim the Wanamaker Trophy, the difficulty of the course gives bettors great value for Aberg, whose patience has paid dividends. Instead of complaining about the placement of the pins, Aberg said he’s not trying to “force anything.”
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Rory McIlroy is another guy whose upside over the last few days is worth investing in for the final round. McIlroy carded a 4-under 66 to move into seventh place, three strokes off the lead on Saturday. That’s a big bump from earlier in the week at 4-over and he calls his game, “S—.”
McIlroy has been killing the ball off the tee: he ranked third in strokes gained off the tee on Saturday and is No. 4 overall in driving distance.
You can’t go wrong backing the two-time PGA Championship winner in this major, especially one month removed from a second straight Masters jacket.
Game: Ludwig Aberg overall winner (+600, DraftKings) | Rory McIlroy finishes top five (+108, DraftKings)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He focuses on selections that reflect market value while tracking trends to minimize risk.
