Trump and Xi have met face to face, but their minds are worlds apart.
Both sides described this week’s summit as positive and there were no big surprises, but based on the first reading, the two leaders seem to be talking “over” each other. China says President Xi Jinping has spoken of “peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait” while at the same time raising “conflicts” and “conflicts” if the US challenges Beijing’s views on Taiwan.
President Trump is addressing his own concerns about Iran. The White House’s official statement was only 163 words long, but the Strait of Hormuz – which is blocked by Iranian missiles and drones – was mentioned three times.
China was buying more than 90% of Iran’s mandated oil, and shell companies and banks in Hong Kong were important in extracting money for the Iranian regime, but China’s official description of these negotiations does not mention Iran at all, only referring to “the situation in the Middle East.”
With reports that China is planning to rearm Iran’s military, China’s role in stabilizing Iran is important to Trump, but it seems that Xi is not listening.
For Xi, China has bigger concerns closer to home, with an economy that overproduces cars, but still underproduces jobs. China’s economy is much weaker than its misleading statistics suggest. It is possible that Xi is talking tough about Taiwan to strengthen domestic support and interference in economic matters.
If this is more than rhetoric, however, the risk to American interests from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is very great. Taiwan is a powerful democracy, an important partner, and the only producer of highly advanced semiconductors, important to America’s growing AI industry.
As the midterms approached, President Trump hoped to use trade talks to score domestic wins. While China has yet to confirm specific deals, President Trump said “we’ve made good trade deals,” saying China has agreed to buy 200 Boeing jets – a point a Chinese spokesman declined to confirm.
Two leaders, one room, and obviously two very different conversations.
This competing narrative is a powerful illustration of the diverging interests between the United States and China. It is also an indication of how difficult it will be to make progress on difficult relationship issues.
For example, China produces a large supply of the world’s few key minerals and rare earths that are important to US military and technology companies — and Beijing has imposed export controls that threaten to choke America’s access to those minerals.
The United States, in turn, has restricted exports of advanced semiconductors, limiting China’s ability to continue the AI arms race. More broadly, the Chinese and American economies are increasingly at odds, with China trying to flood the world with heavily subsidized, low-cost goods that destroy competition at the same time the US is trying to rebuild its industrial base.
Despite these long-term problems, a smooth convention is a good thing for America. The US needs time to break China’s monopoly on essential minerals and move its supply chains out of China. And with global trade already under siege by the closed Strait of Hormuz, American consumers don’t need more trade disruptions.
The biggest thing is that the leaders of the two most powerful countries in the world always understand each other and talk rather than airing grievances. Trump also announced that Xi will come to America in September for another summit – another chance for the leaders to see eye to eye. They may talk past each other, but at least they talk.
Josh Birenbaum is the deputy director of the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, there Daniel Swift he is a research analyst.
