Bitcoin has been on a rollercoaster for the past eighteen months.
In October 2024, the digital currency began to rise on the hope that Trump would be friendlier than the administration of Biden, and by the end of January 2025, it had increased in value by 75%.
Despite the eye drop after Trump announced his “Independence Day” tax in April 2025, Bitcoin continued to rise until October 5, when it reached an all-time high of $126,297.63.
Since the beginning of 2026, however, the Bitcoin balloon has gradually lost air, causing some crypto investors to worry about the beginning of a new “crypto winter”, which in the past has lasted for months or years as the price runs in a small trading range.
Since its peak in October, Bitcoin prices have fallen steadily until they reached their latest low water mark on February 6 at $60,000.01.
That’s down more than 50% in just four months.
But in recent weeks, Bitcoin has been on a high, leading investors to question whether now is the time to get back into the game.
Bitcoin investment outlook 2026: Bull vs. bear case
| Standing | Basic Argument | Supporting Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| A case of bull | Institutional Acquisition | New ETF filings from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. |
| A case of bull | The Digital Shortage | Hard cap of 21 million coins and regular “halving” events. |
| Bear the Case | Extreme Flexibility | Bitcoin is almost 5x more volatile than the S&P 500. |
| Bear the Case | Opportunity Cost | Lack of interest/benefits compared to high yield savings (4%+). |
The case for investing in Bitcoin now
Although crypto, in general and Bitcoin, in particular, remains a volatile asset, institutional acceptance continues to grow. Goldman Sachs recently filed a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Bitcoin ETF just days after Morgan Stanley launched its Bitcoin fund, which attracted more than $100 million in investments in the first week.
The appetite of Big Wall Street players for crypto, especially Bitcoin, has not diminished due to the recent price, as major investment banks continue to offer new ways to profit from Bitcoin exposure. The second effect of institutional investment is related to the relative scarcity of Bitcoin, which is included in its structure.
The Bitcoin code caps the supply at 21 million coins, and the “halving,” a common reduction in Bitcoin mining rewards, slows down the pace of new releases. With fewer new Bitcoins being used and major banks using their large resources to accumulate large amounts, bulls say the price of Bitcoin can only go up.
Bulls also argue Bitcoin still provides portfolio diversification – at least in some major areas.
A 2025 paper in the Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance found that adding Bitcoin improves risk-adjusted portfolio performance during periods of high US economic policy uncertainty.
However, the most pressing question for investors in 2026 is whether Bitcoin is an effective hedge against inflation. For that reason, the evidence is not so clear.
The case against dipping back into Bitcoin
Are we looking at another bull run like the ones in 2015, 2021 and 2024? The answer has to do with how much flexibility you can afford as an investor and how long you are willing to wait for Bitcoin prices to start rising again.
The crypto market is very volatile, a fact that no investor, old or new, should ignore. Although Bitcoin is generally the least volatile of most coins on the market, it is still more volatile than other assets – five times more volatile than the S&P500. Gold, on the other hand, is less volatile than the S&P500.
High volatility means greater price swings and greater risk.
If you’re thinking of getting into Bitcoin because the price is low, know that it could go even lower. Even if you think in the long run, which in this case is years, not months, that Bitcoin will recover and surpass its October 2025 high, it can still hover in a depressed range for months.
Investing at the beginning of the crypto winter means that you may miss out on more profitable investments, which economists call the cost of lost opportunities. In addition, buying Bitcoin through an exchange like SoFi means you won’t earn interest on your holdings.
For investors who bought Bitcoin in September 2024 and held on to it, they locked up their money for 18 months with no profit to show. The same amount invested in a high yield savings account would have returned 4% without risking any principal.
Bitcoin faces other potential problems, including an uncertain regulatory environment, which is deeply influenced by the current uncertain political situation in the US Since 2020, Bitcoin has also been closely associated with the US technology industry, often referred to as the “Magnificent 7,” making it more like a vulnerable technology stock than a reliable store of value in uncertain times.
For investors who believe in the long-term thesis behind blockchain technology, Bitcoin is certainly trading at a discount to the upside. If you have never invested in Bitcoin before, now might be the right time to open an account with SoFi.
But if you are not optimistic about the direction of the economy, it can be a big risk.
FAQ: Bitcoin investing in 2026
What does Eric Trump say about crypto?
Eric Trump has been a strong advocate of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, saying he believes “digital gold” will reach $1 million in the near future. He along with Alex and Zach Witkoff is a founding member of World Liberty Financial and its “Web3 Ambassador.”
How much would I have if I had invested $10,000 in Bitcoin five years ago?
A $10,000 investment in Bitcoin in mid-April 2021 would be worth $12,750 today, a 27.5% increase. If you had invested that same $10,000 in Nvidia stock, you would have had $133,400, a 1,234% profit.
What is the easiest way to invest in Bitcoin?
The easiest way to invest in Bitcoin is to open an account with a major exchange like SoFi or Coinbase. This exchange allows you to transfer funds from a linked bank account and trade major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.
