Democrats are facing the possibility of a historic upset in the California governor’s race, a poll finds

Despite the long, entrenched Democratic dominance of California politics, a new poll shows two Republicans leading by narrow margins in the state’s 2026 gubernatorial race as the June election nears.

The confusing results appear to be largely due to the state’s left-leaning voters feeling unmotivated by any one person in the eight-member state’s Democrats. Because of California’s first law, that fatigue could lead to Democrats closing in on the November election that will decide the next leader of the largest state in the union, although that is still considered unlikely.

Conservative commentator Steve Hilton has the support of about 17% of voters and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco has the support of 16%, according to a poll released Wednesday by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by The Times.

They were closely followed by Democrats Rep. Eric Swalwell of Northern California and former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, both of whom were supported by 13% of likely voters. Apart from billionaire hedge fund founder and environmental activist Tom Steyer, who registered 10% support after pouring tens of millions of dollars into his campaign, no other Democrat had more than 5% support, the poll showed.

Mark DiCamillo, director of polls, said he was surprised by how scattered voters were and how little information they had about the candidates less than 60 days before ballots began in California mailboxes.

“This is history for me, especially considering that none of the candidates have a good image with the voters, which is also surprising.” I mean, maybe one of the reasons why voters don’t get involved, they don’t have enthusiasm for the voters,” he said. “They say they are going to sleep in this election.”

Swalwell and Porter both looked to the party’s progressive wing and rose nationally as regular guests on cable news shows and as controversial committee members, sometimes in theaters during congressional oversight hearings. That anonymity has fueled attacks on Republicans and the right and boosted their popularity among the Democratic base — both important to voters looking for a strong candidate to challenge President Trump.

Porter had a bit of a resurgence after the vote in the fall after videos surfaced of him criticizing an aide and a reporter. And he has the most favorable ratings of any candidate in the field at 34%.

According to the survey, Steyer’s support among likely voters has increased to 10% from 1% in Berkeley’s October election. The push comes after Steyer has spent about $50 million on television ads since December, according to data analyst Paul Mitchell of Capitol Weekly.

Among the other top Democrats in the race: former US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is backed by 5 percent of likely voters; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San José Mayor Matt Mahan at 4%, and former county Comptroller Betty Yee and county Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond by 1%.

The poll found that 16% of likely voters were undecided or supported some unknown candidates.

The split in the support of Democrats who hope to become the governor of the country has also appeared in other ways. On Monday, the powerful California Federation of Labor voted to endorse four candidates – part of the Democratic field.

DiCamillo said he believes the inclusion of a poll of voter qualifications that voters will see on their ballots is important in a low-information contest.

“That’s really important in a race where voters don’t have a lot of information, or say they don’t know a lot about the candidates,” he said, adding that it would especially help Bianco, the Riverside County supervisor. “The title of his work is commendable, and that the voters think that is trustworthy, so let me consider him.”

Fears of two Republicans winning the top two spots in the June 2 primary prompted California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks to call on low-ballot voters to reconsider their performance and quit if they don’t see a way forward earlier this month.

Some candidates disputed the election, saying that party leaders were actually telling everyone who was white to leave the race. With the exception of one candidate, all top Democrats in the race responded by immediately filing their campaign documents with the secretary of state, meaning their names would appear on the ballot.

Only the two people who received the most votes in the primary advance to the general election in November – regardless of political party.

The chances of a Republican becoming California’s next governor appear slim. No Republican has won a statewide election in California since 2006, the year Hollywood movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected to a second term as governor. Democratic registered voters in the state outnumber Republicans by nearly 2 to 1.

Compared to previous gubernatorial races that featured well-known Democratic candidates, none of the candidates from either party are well-known to voters. A large number of voters have no opinion about either candidate – including nearly two-thirds of those polled about Mahan, Yee and Thurmond.

Voters were paying close attention to the issues they believe are the most important for the next governor to address.

Affordability dominated among all voters, regardless of political views, the survey found. Four in 10 voters said lowering the cost of living in California was among the next governor’s top priorities, and smaller numbers also highlighted building affordable housing and lowering gas prices and utility rates.

Affordability is “a top issue for voters, here in California and across the country. There’s no question,” DiCamillo said. “It’s probably more urgent here in California, just as our cost of living is higher than many other places.”

Building new houses, loosening regulations to allow such construction faster and reducing the cost of buying a house, discouraging private firms from buying houses and reducing fuel prices are some of the topics they often talk about in campaigns and debates.

A stark divide was evident among voters when asked about cutting waste, fraud and political corruption in state government, the poll found. About 50% of Republicans say this is a priority, compared to 10% of Democrats and slightly more than a quarter of voters who say no party favors it.

DiCamillo said the idea is consistent with President Trump’s messages and what his administration has been pursuing in the federal government. Trump has repeatedly painted California as full of waste, fraud and abuse. On Monday, when he unveiled an anti-fraud task force to be led by Vice President JD Vance, California was among the states he identified as having a poor understanding of public finances.

GOP voters in California share similar sentiments, DiCamillo said.

In Washington, DC, “they’re cutting back, trying to make government smaller, and … they’re just cutting waste again,” he said. California “Republicans, given the fact that the Democrats have been in control for so long, they think … more of that is needed now and here in California.”

The Berkeley IGS/Times poll surveyed 5,019 California voters who registered online in English and Spanish from March 9 to 14. The results are estimated to have a margin of error of 2.5 percent in either direction for the sample as a whole, and for large numbers of subgroups.