Bill Self and No. No. 4 Kansas opens the March Madness slate against No. 13 California Baptist in East Regional play.
The Jayhawks are coming off a 22-point loss to Houston in the Big 12 semifinals, while Cal Baptist makes the trip down I-5 South to San Diego, riding a six-game winning streak.
Kansas is a 13.5-point favorite, and the Over/Under is set at 138.5 points, per BetMGM Sportsbook.
With 12-seeded High Point beating No. 5 Wisconsin, followed by 11-seeded VCU’s dramatic overtime victory against 6-seeded UNC on Thursday, the underdogs put a scare into the bracket, confirming the belief that either team can win.
Could we see another shocker in this matchup No. 13 vs No. 4?
California Baptist vs. Kansas forecast, best bet.
Darryn Peterson’s consistent ability to play a full 40 minutes has been the defining narrative of Kansas’ season.
Despite injuries or ongoing injuries to the NBA prospect, Kansas managed a 10-2 record without him on the roster.
His ability to score at all three levels matches the Jayhawks’ top-10 defense on the floor. However, a bad shooting night—like his 3-for-18 performance at Arizona State—can lead to a painful loss for his team.
Melvin Council Jr.’s performance at guard will be important following a poor performance in the Big 12 tournament, where he shot 4-of-26 in two games.
He remains the team’s top assist, averaging 5.1 per game.
With Flory Bidunga dominating the paint with nearly 2.5 blocks per game, Kansas is positioned to dominate later in the contest.
Cal Baptist brings a strong rebounding team as well, leading the Western Athletic Conference with 39.9 boards per outing.
Sure, the WAC isn’t a household name in basketball, but make no mistake, the Lancers’ 25-8 overall record earned them their first-ever bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Cal Baptist, like Kansas, also boasts a clear primary threat in 5-foot-10 Dominique Daniels Jr.
Daniels Jr. he’s a prolific scorer, averaging 23.2 points per game, the fifth-most in Division I, and his perimeter power could pose a problem for Kansas, which has struggled to defend the arc.
While the Jayhawks’ recent record of 4-5 in their nine games is concerning, Cal Baptist presents many challenges.
Unlike the other higher seeds, the Lancers have faced and lost to three Big 12 teams the Jayhawks are familiar with at BYU (a blowout loss), as well as close losses to Colorado and Utah.
Betting on College Basketball?
Adding to the difficulty is the Lancers’ near-top-50 defense, which ranks 51st in adjusted efficiency per KenPom, and the proximity to home court, as the game is nearly two hours from their campus.
Given these factors, the best betting strategy is to play in the first half, as the game is likely to be closer than expected going into the break.
I’m picking Cal Baptist to cover the first half of the spread because of the Jayhawks’ tendency to get off to slow starts and their average 5-6 road record away from the Phog this season.
The PLAY: California Baptist +8 first half spread (-115, bet365 Sportsbook)
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Mike Turay is a sports reporter and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and the UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA betting and NFL player prop for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook landscape, frequently testing and updating the latest apps and sites.
