Big 12 MBB power rankings: Arizona, Houston top as undefeated Wildcats prepare for brutal multi-week
Welcome to Hotline’s Big 12 men’s basketball power rankings, a weekly assessment of the conference using math and common sense, and the constant pasta to the wall when the frenzy is rampant. Power ratings will be published every Tuesday until the end of the regular season. (Last week’s edition focused on the imminent firing of coach Bobby Hurley by Arizona State.)
Arizona is the No. 1 team in the country and the only undefeated team in a power conference but only this week was the betting favorite — the small ones betting favorite — to win the NCAA tournament.
The level of faith in the Wildcats (22-0) does not reflect the strength of their progress.
They don’t seem to have one talent (aka: a boy) able to carry the team through multiple rounds of March Madness.
They rely heavily on three new players, guard Brayden Burries and forwards Koa Peat and Ivan Kharchenkov.
While they are effective from 3-point range, they shoot very few shots.
And their bench is small.
But the Wildcats’ biggest flaw, obviously, is their unblemished record. Perfection is a problem.
We joke, mostly.
There is nothing inherently wrong with an undefeated record in early February, but there is a lot to worry about with an undefeated record in mid-March.
Consider the Wildcats with a 34-0 mark entering the NCAA tournament, six wins from becoming the first team in 40 years to complete a perfect season.
The pressure will be immense, especially on a Final Four-or-bust schedule that has historically underperformed in March.
Arizona needs a loss … or three … before the championship.
Of course, all losses are not created equal. And the Wildcats must avoid the kind of rebounding results that could derail their pursuit of a No. 1 seed. Because as every Arizona fan knows, there’s a big difference between the two seeds, especially in first-round success.
Fortunately for the Wildcats, the Big 12 is helping the losing cause with an ornery two-week stretch.
In a 13-day stretch that begins next week, Arizona faces No. 11 Kansas, No. 13 Texas Tech, No. 16 BYU and No. 8 Houston.
The first and last ones are on the way.
The quartet’s combined record: 69-17
And if the Wildcats somehow survive with their undefeated record, they can celebrate success … at Baylor.
That’s it it’s easy game during extended violence.
After visiting Waco, the Wildcats return home to face Kansas and No. 7 Iowa State on the way to a comeback before the end of conference play a mile high, in Boulder, where Arizona has lost five of its last six.
Put another way: The Wildcats’ last six games are against division opponents, with two more on the road.
It all starts Monday in Lawrence, following a weekend matchup with Oklahoma State.
Arizona may have some minor mistakes to hide and some nagging issues to address when March Madness arrives, but the pressure of an undefeated season won’t be on the list of concerns.
Top 12 schedulers have taken care of that.
In power measurements…
(Results and NET ranks till Monday)
1. Arizona (22-0/9-0)
Result: won at Arizona State 87-74
NET Level: No. 2
Comments: For the record, the Wildcats are 355th in Division I (out of 361 teams) in 3-point attempts per game (16.6), but 58th in 3-point shooting percentage (36.3). And finally we checked, percentages matter. (Previous: 1)
2. Houston (19-2/7-1)
Results: won at TCU 79-70, beat Cincinnati 76-54
NET Level: No. 9
Comments: Although their NET ranking matches the No. 1 seed. 3 in the NCAA Tournament, the Cougars played as the No. 1 seed. No player in their right mind would want to face them before a tournament game. (Previous: 3)
3. Iowa State (20-2/7-2)
Results: defeated Colorado 97-67, won at Kansas State 95-61
NET Level: No. 4
Comments: The combined 64-point margin of victory for the two-game sweep is easily explained: The Cyclones were 24-of-48 from 3-point range. We suggest saving some of that long-range luck for March. (Previous: 4)
4. Kansas (17-5/7-2)
Results: beat BYU 90-82, won at Texas Tech 64-61
NET Level: No. 13
Comments: Take a look at who plays as a Final Four threat after those early January losses to UCF and West Virginia. If the Jayhawks keep this up, the Big 12 tournament will be unbelievable. (Previous: 6)
5. Texas Tech (16-6/6-3)
Results: lost to UCF 88-80 and Kansas 64-61
NET Level: No. 20
Comments: The Red Raiders were outscored 14-2 by KU in the final six minutes, a script partially attributed to Christian Anderson’s absence. Actors don’t close plays; that task is left to the stars. (See: Peterson, Darryn.) And Anderson is a star. (Previous: 2)
6. BYU (17-4/5-3)
Result: lost to Kansas 90-82
NET Level: No. 15
Comments: It has been two months since the Cougars defeated an opponent that would make the main stage of the NCAA Tournament (Clemson, December 9). That’s not cause for alarm in Provo with more than a month to go until Selection Sunday, but it is cause for a little concern. (Previous: 5)
7. UCF (17-4/6-3)
Results: beat Arizona State 79-76 and Texas Tech 88-80
NET Level: No. 37
Comments: The Knights are in NCAA form as long as they don’t miss out on Quadrant III and IV losses over time. We are becoming more and more confident in their ability to avoid the face plant. (Previous: 7)
8. Colorado (13-9/3-6)
Results: lost to Iowa State 97-67, beat TCU 87-61
NET Level: Number 75
Comments: A 30-point road loss followed a few days later by a 26-point win has defined Colorado basketball over the years. Put another way: A swing of 56 points and about 5,000 feet. (Previous: 9)
9. Baylor (12-9/2-7)
Results: lost at Cincinnati 67-57, won at West Virginia 63-53
NET Level: No. 55
Comments: The win in Morgantown, while impressive, doesn’t change the trajectory of a team that has lost seven of its past nine and lacks the defensive strength needed to rebuild. (Previous: 10)
10. TCU (13-9/3-6)
Results: lost to Houston 79-70, lost to Colorado 87-61
NET Level: No. 54
Comments: More than half of TCU’s wins (seven) have been of the Quadrant IV variety, and the soft-finishing schedule provides fewer Quadrant I opportunities than the Horned Frogs need to make up for it. (Previous: 8)
11. Oklahoma State (15-6/3-5)
Result: won at Utah 81-69
NET Level: Number 68
Comments: Even if the Cowboys string a string of wins together next month, their soft non-conference schedule will remain an unbreakable anchor. (Previous: 11)
12. West Virginia (14-8/5-4)
Results: beat Kansas State 59-54, lost to Baylor 63-53
NET Level: No. 66
Comments: The Mountaineers are just two spots higher in the NET based on results than the Pomeroy Ratings, which are predictive in nature. So what you see is, most likely, what you will get. (Previous: 12)
13. Cincinnati (11-11/3-6)
Result: beat Baylor 67-57, lost to Houston 76-54
NET Level: Number 78
Comments: The Bearcats’ position on the NET is worth monitoring. They are currently classified as a Quadrant II opponent when they play in Cincinnati and a Quadrant III opponent when on the road. If they sneak into the 75, those results change to Quad I and Quad II, respectively. (Previous: 14)
14. Arizona State (11-11/2-7)
Results: lost to UCF 79-76 and Arizona 87-74
NET Level: Number 81
Comments: Trailing UCF by four games is a bigger offense to Bobby Hurley’s program than trailing Arizona by seven games. (Previous: 13)
15. Kansas State (10-12/1-8)
Results: lost to West Virginia 59-54 and Iowa State 95-61
NET Level: Number 93
Comments: Don’t be surprised if there are four or five coaching changes in the Big 12 this spring — and that’s just the number of firings. You never know what coaches might make the jump to the SEC or Big Ten. (Previous: 15)
16. Utah (9-12/1-7)
Result: lost to Oklahoma State 81-69
NET Level: Number 116
Comments: Losing at home to Oklahoma State by double digits is a bad loss. But you know what’s worse: When it’s not the worst loss of the season. (Previous: 16)
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