California Democrats were warned to get their act together months ago. Back off, combine, pick the best or risk splitting the vote.
They ignored the advice. Now the numbers are in and the results are brutal.
A new UC Berkeley-LA Times poll shows the 2026 race for governor is a toss-up for Democrats. Support spread across the packed field as Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco moved quietly forward.
The details tell the story. Neither Democratic Alliance has a 13% lead while the GOP contenders sit in the top ten. 16% of voters remain undecided, leaving the door open for a historic upset.
Hilton leads with 17% followed by Bianco with 16%. Democratic heavyweights Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter are young. Billionaire Tom Steyer sits at about 10%. Other Democrats like Xavier Becerra Antonio Villaraigosa and Matt Mahan are all trailing in the single digits.
California uses a two-primary system where the top vote-getters regardless of party advance to the general election. That means Democrats risk a complete shutdown in November if they can’t unify.
Their vote is divided among the eight important ones and the Republicans have only two. Party insiders and California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks warned candidates to evaluate their performance and consider bowing out. The advice was not heeded.
Analysts say that the very structure of the top two programs favors the Republicans when one party has a large number of candidates. Even if Democrats make up 60% of the electorate and Republicans 40%, splitting that 60% between four or more Democrats would allow two Republicans to finish ahead simply because the vote percentages are diluted.
The poll also shows the number of voters who have sacrificed. With more than 16% of voters undecided, most Californians have never connected with either candidate’s message. That’s in favor of Republicans who have shunned everyone’s bailouts and consolidated their base.
Some polls show that Republicans and Democrats are tied and in some cases Republicans are slightly ahead. The race is far from settled but dangerously unstable for Democrats.
A handful of Democratic heavyweights should at least have the collective power or issue a gag order. Instead they remain separate, each carrying a supporting piece too small to be significant on its own.
That split under the top two system rewards an easy majority and now the chances of a historic upset for California are real. If Democrats don’t act quickly they could hand the governor’s mansion to Republicans at a time when the state is dealing with rising gas prices, housing problems and heated debates about crime.
A political earthquake that few saw could be imminent.
