Evidence suggests deadly explosion at Iranian school may have been US drone – The Mercury News

By JULIA FRANKEL and MICHAEL BIESECKER, The Associated Press

JERUSALEM — Satellite images, expert analysis, a US official and public information released by the US and Israeli military suggest that an explosion that killed dozens of Iranian students at a school may have been caused by US warplanes that also hit a nearby base linked to the regime’s Revolutionary Guard.

The strike on February 28, which had the highest number of casualties since the start of the war, drew heavy criticism from the United Nations and human rights monitors. More than 165 people died, most of them children, in the explosion at Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School, according to Iran’s state media.

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Satellite images taken on Wednesday and reviewed by the Associated Press showed most of the school in the town of Minab, 1,100 kilometers (680 miles) southeast of Tehran, reduced to rubble, a piece of its roof. Experts say the strong pattern of damage seen in satellite images is consistent with a targeted airstrike.

Iran blamed Israel and the United States for the incident. No country has accepted the obligation. Asked about the school strike at a Pentagon press conference Wednesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said, “All I can say is we’re investigating that. Of course, we never target human casualties. But we’re looking at it and we’re investigating that.”

Several factors point to a US strike.

Another is the launch of an incident investigation by the US military. According to the Pentagon’s directives on procedures to reduce civilian casualties, the test was launched after a team of investigators made a preliminary determination that the US military might be responsible. A US official told AP that the strike was in the US The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly on the sensitive issue.

Another location for the school – near the base of the Revolutionary Guard in Hormozgan Province and near its naval base. The US military has focused on naval targets and has approved strikes in the province, including one near a school.

Israel, which has denied carrying out the strike, has focused on Iranian areas close to Israel and has never reported an attack south of Isfahan, which is 800 kilometers (500 miles) away. The US deploys warships in the Arabian Sea, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, during the course.

When asked by the AP about its findings, the spokesman for the US military’s Central Command, Capt. Tim Hawkins said, “It is not appropriate to comment as the incident is still under investigation.”

White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt told reporters on Friday that she did not have much information on the investigation and did not directly respond to a question about whether Trump was satisfied with the speed of the investigation.

“My opinion is that maybe there was some activity recently and they found it and tracked it, but … they didn’t know or didn’t have the latest information that there was a girls’ school and they bombed it,” said Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who studies Iran’s military.

Satellite images show the damage

The school is located near a walled area marked on maps as the Seyyed Al-Shohada Cultural Complex of the Guard, which includes a pharmacy, a gymnasium and a sports field.

Outside the school, satellite images show that the explosion hit at least five buildings at the military base, leaving the area covered in craters, burnt holes in the roof and piles of rubble.

Iranian online map applications show the Assef Brigades residence about 150 meters (165 yards) from the school, inside a Revolutionary Guard compound. The 16th Assef Coastal Missile Group is part of the navy, Nadimi said. The 1st Naval District, under the Assef Brigades, oversees the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all oil and natural gas trade passes. The strait became a particular point of conflict in the war.

After the strike, video from Iran’s state broadcaster verified by the AP using satellite imagery showed dozens of graves dug up in a nearby cemetery. Nadimi said that it is possible for the school to educate the daughters of security personnel.

The strike has been heavily criticized by the secretary-general of the United Nations and human rights organizations around the world. The criticism comes amid reports that airstrikes have also hit other schools in Iran.

Targeting the schools would be a clear violation of international rules governing conflict, said Elise Baker, a senior staff attorney at the Atlantic Council, a nonprofit think tank based in Washington.

“Strikes can only be aimed at military and war targets, but the school was public and the students and teachers were civilians,” Baker said. “The proximity of the school to the (guards) places and the presence of the children of the (Guards) members at the school does not change that conclusion: It was just a human thing.”

The pattern of damage suggests a targeted claim

Three experts told the AP that satellite images and videos from the scene strongly suggested that multiple weapons had hit the area. Complicating any assessment is the lack of photographs of the bomb fragments from the explosion. No independent agency has accessed the site during the war to investigate.

There are no craters or evidence of bombing in the area, which suggests a high degree of accuracy, said Corey Scher, a researcher who uses satellite images and radar data to study terrain changes in armored areas.

“All the strikes are concentrated in a walled area,” said Scher. “That’s one level of accuracy at the block level. And most strikes lead to direct hits on buildings. That’s another level of accuracy.”

Scher said the school and other buildings hit in the compound showed damage consistent with the use of surface-to-air weapons.

“They didn’t explode in the air above the building,” he said. “It looks like the explosion happened when they hit the surface, whether it was a building or the ground.”

Sean Moorhouse, a former British Army officer and explosive ordnance disposal expert, said the satellite imagery available was insufficient to determine what type of weapons were used in the strike, but said the visible damage was consistent with what would be expected from the effects of 2,000-kilogram (900-kilogram) high-explosive warheads. He said multiple precision impacts would undermine any suggestion that a malfunctioning Iranian missile hit the school.

NR Jenzen-Jones, director of Armament Research Services, said the school and rangers were targeted by “multiple simultaneous or near-simultaneous strikes.” He said in the videos of the school taken immediately after the strike, smoke can be seen from the security compound. It also impacted many buildings visible in satellite images and media reports quoting witnesses who said they heard multiple explosions.

“If it is confirmed that an American or Israeli strike has hit a school, there are many points that may not have failed in the targeting cycle,” said Jenzen-Jones. “It’s possible that we’re seeing an intelligence failure, possibly early in the process, that didn’t identify a target or failed to update the target list after a change in the building’s use.”

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Biesecker reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Konstantin Toropin and Michelle Price in Washington, and Aamer Madhani in Doral, Florida, contributed to this report.