Pac-12 MBB power ratings: Utah State tops (again) as Gonzaga’s resume plays a big role, courtesy of Big Ten
Welcome to the latest installment of the Pac-12 men’s basketball powerhouse Hotline, our weekly assessment of the reinvented conference using results, stats and a dash of logic. Power ratings will be published every Monday until the end of the regular season. Here is last week’s schedule, which compared the new Pac-12 to the old Pac-12.
The NCAA Tournament selection committee will go into action this weekend with the preseason reveal of the top 16 seeds.
Where will Gonzaga go? The Zags are an interesting case on two ends.
Their placement (or exclusion) will reflect the damage caused by the stunning loss in Portland two weeks ago. Alone among the top 20 teams in the current NET rankings, the Zags have a Quadrant III loss. It will not go unpunished.
The second part of Gonzaga’s fate in the early revelations is more difficult to measure: the damage to the resume caused by the inefficiencies of three Big Ten opponents.
Gonzaga scheduled neutral-site meets with UCLA, Oregon and Maryland, which were projected to finish third, fifth and 13th in the Big Ten race, respectively, in a preseason media poll conducted by the Columbus Dispatch.
To varying degrees, all three have floundered.
The Bruins are seventh in the conference and the No.
The Terrapins are tied for 14th, with a 3-11 record in conference play and a NET ranking in the 150s.
The Ducks are 16th in the Big Ten, plagued by injuries and are headed for their worst season under longtime coach Dana Altman.
The difference between Gonzaga’s intention and Gonzaga’s reality can be seen in two ways:
– After completing the non-conference schedule, the Zags could reasonably expect three Big Ten opponents to produce at least two NCAA Tournament bids and possibly a third. Instead, they will be lucky to produce one (for UCLA).
– Additionally, the Zags can expect a neutral court sweep to add two Quadrant I wins (UCLA and Oregon) and one Quadrant II victory (Maryland) to their resume. Instead, their effort will likely produce one Quadrant I win (UCLA) and two Quadrant III wins.
(Gonzaga beat Maryland by 39 points, UCLA by 10 and Oregon by nine points.)
Will the committee look in favor of the purpose behind Gonzaga’s program? You have to. There’s only so much the 297 schools outside of the power conference can do to challenge themselves.
Even the total credit — the one-seed line — could help Gonzaga’s quest to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2021.
Consider the top seed’s all-time winning percentage in first-round games:
Seed count: 98.8% (158-2)
Number 2 seed: 93.1 percent (149-11)
Number 3 seed: 85.6 percent (137-23)
Number 4 seed: 79.4 percent (127-33)
Or the frequency with which each seed reaches the Final Four:
No. 1 seed: 66 appearances
No. 2 seed: 32
No. 3 seed: 17
Number 4: 15
Based on those data sets, the difference between the No. 2 and No. 3 is greater than the difference between the No.
Do the Zags, despite their heartbreaking loss in Portland, have enough resume juice to earn the No. 2 seed?
Or is their seed ceiling limited to the No. 3?
It may depend on the amount awarded (or withheld) for three wins against underperforming Big Ten opponents.
Our first clue comes on Saturday with the original reveal.
In power measurements…
(Results and NET ranks till Sunday)
1. Utah State (22-3)
Results: beat Fresno State 91-78 and Memphis 99-75
NET Level: No. 23
Comments: Coach Jerrod Calhoun took some serious heat after his Aggies’ run against Memphis, but his postgame explanation was clear: Margin of victory is one of the most powerful tools available to quarterbacks in the selection process. The program forces them to ignore sportsmanship and respect. (Previous: 1)
2. Gonzaga (25-2)
Results: beat Washington State 83-53, won at Santa Clara 94-86
NET Level: No. 6
Comments: How much will a 40-point loss to Michigan (in Las Vegas) affect Gonzaga’s seed? The damage should be north of zero but significantly farther south considering the Zags have proven themselves against plenty of power conference opponents. (Previous: 2)
3. San Diego State (18-6)
Results: beat Nevada 71-57
NET Level: Number 41
Comments: SDSU stands as the best-case scenario in a rebuilt Pac-12 — a team that likely decides whether a conference that doesn’t exist yet gets two or three NCAA bids. The Aztecs certainly have enough juice left in their schedule (Utah State, New Mexico, Boise State and Grand Canyon) to play their way from the bubble to the field. (Previous: 3)
4. Boise State (15-10)
Results: lost to UNLV 86-83 (OT)
NET Level: No. 60
Comments: Meanwhile, the Broncos played their way off the bubble, only on the wrong side. The loss to UNLV, in which they somehow gave up a 17-point lead with nine minutes left, was a killer of the first order. (Previous: 4)
5. Oregon State (14-14)
Results: won at San Francisco 90-63, lost at Seattle 60-50
NET Level: Number 184
Comments: Without extensive research, it’s hard to know the last time the Beavers were higher than No. 200 in the NET rankings by the end of the season. Why is it so difficult? At that time, the Internet did not exist. (Previous: 5)
6. Washington State (11-16)
Results: lost to Gonzaga 83-53
NET Level: Number 135
Comments: This time next year, we’ll know if the Cougars should begin a coaching search. David Riley will be at the end of his third season, which is more than enough time to pass judgment on the portal era. (Previous: 6)
7. Fresno State (12-13)
Results: lost to Utah State 91-78, beat Air Force 93-63
NET Level: Number 137
Comments: It’s becoming increasingly easy to see the building blocks needed for the Bulldogs to compete in the Pac-12 next season. Their defense is a solid 62 in KenPom.com’s efficiency ratings. They just need to fix the offense (207th). (Previous: 7)
8. Colorado State (15-10)
Results: won at Air Force 91-74, beat Wyoming 79-68
NET Level: Number 95
Comments: The goal of the rebuilt Pac-12 should be to keep all nine teams in the top 100 of the NET rankings. That’s ambitious, indeed. And it will cost a pretty penny, both to build the program and to manipulate the schedule. But why not aim higher? (Previous: 8)
9. Texas State (17-11)
Results: defeated Troy 74-62 and UL Monroe 95-84
NET Level: Number 236
Comments: We should probably talk about the streaky Bobcats who are a threat to qualify for the NCAAs as the Sun Belt tournament winner has given up six wins and a chance to earn a top seed in two weeks in Pensacola. (Previous: 9)
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