California voters rejected the status quo in Tuesday’s primary, sending Republican Steve Hilton to the front of the race for governor, and likely forcing LA Mayor Karen Bass into a battle against Spencer Pratt.
As the results stand, the Golden State will have the general election it deserves: a clear contest between bold new ideas on the one hand, and the entrenched political establishment on the other.
The winds of change also blew in low-ticket races. In the race for superintendent of schools, for example, conservative Sonja Shaw, who led the fight for parents’ rights, has taken the lead.
Here are a few key takeaways.
1. California voters reject new taxes
Voters in three of California’s largest cities appear to have rejected a property tax increase — unexpectedly.
In San Diego, preliminary results showed voters rejecting Measure A, 58%-42%, which would implement a Zohran Mamdani-style tax on vacant second homes.
In San Francisco, voters appeared to reject Measure D, 55% to 45%, which would tax “overpaid CEOs.”
And in LA County, early returns suggested voters rejected Measure ER, 53% to 47%, which would have raised sales taxes by 0.5%, supposedly to fund health care costs.
It is not a complete tax revolt. San Francisco voters also soundly rejected Measure C, 64% to 36%, which would have lowered some business taxes (while raising others).
But voters are sending a signal: enough is enough.
That, in turn, suggests the proposed “billionaires’ tax,” which will appear on the November ballot, could face an uphill battle, even if early polls show some support.
2. Money wasted by Tom Steyer
Tom Steyer set a campaign spending record in California, putting more than $200 million into his race for governor.
And it’s all in vain as he seems to have failed to finish in the top two.
Steyer’s career spending on failed political campaigns is close to $1 billion.
He had already spent nearly a quarter of a billion on Democratic Party candidates when he announced his 2019 presidential bid.
He spent nearly $350 million on that unsuccessful campaign, which he abandoned after losing badly in the first four 2020 primaries.
And now he lost his bet in the California gubernatorial primary.
In all matters involving money in politics, it is clear that spending more money does not guarantee victory.
You have to have a decent candidate, and an effective message.
Steyer was a billionaire who attacked billionaires. It didn’t work.
3. Palisades Fire pushback
The Palisades Fire had a major impact on the California primary.
Spencer Pratt is the most obvious example. After losing his family home in a fire, Pratt jumped into the LA mayoral race. He’s channeling his community’s anger — and giving voice to other Angelenos who are angry about the poor state of city services.
There are other races where the Palisades Fire played a role.
Ben Allen, who represents Pacific Palisades in the State Senate, appears to have finished second in the primary for state insurance commissioner, meaning he may advance to the general election to face San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim.
Traci Park, the aggressive Pacific Palisades representative on the LA City Council, appears to have won re-election, with two-thirds of the vote.
Without a doubt, the Palisades Fire will remain a powerful theme in the general election as well.
4. Kevin Kiley may defeat Prop 50
Governor Gavin Newsom took a victory lap after convincing voters to approve his congressional map on Proposition 50 last year.
But Rep. Kevin Kiley — one of Newsom’s removal targets — could have the last laugh.
Instead of running against another Republican in the redrawn district, Kiley became an independent and ran in the new 6th district, in the suburbs of Sacramento.
Early returns put Kiley on top — and put Republican Michael Stansfield in second place.
That could mean the Democrats — who are divided among the top five — could find themselves completely locked out of the general election.
If so, Kiley will be elected to win the general election, and return to Congress – with a new mandate to fight for fair elections, and to hold California Democrats accountable.
Prop 50 escalated a redistricting war that was already hurting Democrats across the country. To see it hovering even in California can be a sight to behold.
Joel Pollak is the Opinion editor for the California Post.
