Ukraine is proving to hold more “cards” than some thought, thwarting Russia’s battlefield advances while destroying its own infrastructure.
Vladimir Putin appears to be under pressure to end the war. Yet Moscow still seeks peace terms that far exceed its military capabilities.
That disagreement has sunk previous US peace talks, which have been suspended amid the Iran conflict.
When talks resume, they will fail again unless Washington can convince Putin to align its demands with reality.
Ukraine has reason to be optimistic, as one of us saw firsthand this month. The Ukrainian people survived their harshest winter yet despite the lack of air defenses to protect the energy infrastructure, and the people remained strong.
While Ukraine still has many opportunities to reclaim much of its territory, Russia’s gains have been slow and costly to achieve. And Ukraine’s strategic and technological advantages make long-term Russian success impossible.
We will likely see Russia’s offensive gain some ground this month – but this will be quickly eclipsed by Ukraine’s ability to make lethal ground tactics.
Ukraine has greatly improved the depth of close drone fires, allowing them to place charges every 30 or 50 kilometers behind Russian lines. That leaves the Russian military with almost no chance of achieving a major breakthrough.
The Ukrainian army has stopped bleeding personnel, while the level of Russian forces continues to decline.
Ukraine has also increased strikes on central Russian targets such as transport systems and air defense systems – making Russian operations, already challenging, more vulnerable to launch and resupply. And the long-range bombing of oil infrastructure and defense-industrial plants, making it more difficult for Putin to support the Russian war machine.
The ongoing clashes forced Moscow to cancel its annual May 9 military parade in Red Square – a spectacle that often means a show of force. It was a tacit admission of powerlessness.
And Russia’s worse-than-expected economic downturn has left Putin scrambling for answers from senior officials.
Public fatigue with the conflict, which has now dragged on longer than the Soviet “Great Patriotic War” against Nazi Germany, has grown. Restrictions on mobile internet access and popular social media apps have fueled discontent among ordinary Russians and elites alike.
This does not put Putin at great risk of a coup or coup, but he appears to be under pressure to end the war. Yet he insists on doing so on his own terms.
The Kremlin announced this month that further peace talks would be a “waste of time” unless Kyiv surrenders the Ukrainian-controlled part of eastern Donetsk region.
For Kyiv, that’s a non-starter: The area includes a “citadel belt” of cities and towns that Russia, at its level of development, will need years to conquer.
The same incident has hampered US peace-building efforts since last year.
In those negotiations, the White House pushed for territorial concessions by Ukraine, which is seen as a weak group. But while the Ukrainian people can live with leaving land already under Russian control, Kyiv will not give up land that Russia cannot capture.
As a compromise, US negotiators suggested turning the Ukrainian-held part of Donetsk into a “free economic zone.” But it was established when Moscow insisted on gaining administrative control and sending Russian national troops to the area – which Kyiv rightfully rejected.
Russia, moreover, has made it clear that its interests are not limited to Donetsk. In the words of the Kremlin itself, the withdrawal of Ukraine’s case on that issue will automatically open the ceasefire and negotiations on a final agreement.
Putin is likely to focus on other issues in Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Instead of predicting a deal with ongoing Ukraine deals, President Trump should focus on exploiting Russia’s weaknesses — and convincing Putin to accept realistic terms.
For example, Washington could raise its proposal for a demilitarized zone but insist that it remain under Ukrainian sovereignty.
Accomplishing this will require releasing colorful information that Russian generals may be feeding Putin.
Moscow’s tendency to exaggerate its progress on the battlefield may reflect not just propaganda, but fake reporting on the series.
Trump should tell Putin that Russia has no way to win. He must match that message with the continued supply of European-sponsored arms and US intelligence to Ukraine.
In concert, the United States should work to increase Russia’s economic problems.
Proper enforcement of oil sanctions, although unlikely at present given the Hormuz oil crisis, should begin as soon as possible.
Putting Putin down will take time. It may seem impossible.
But alternatives have been tried and failed.
To achieve peace, Putin must be made to understand the limits of his “cards” – and adjust accordingly.
Mark Montgomery is a retired US Army rear commander who is now executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where John Hardie is deputy director of the Russia program.
