After stealing Game 1 in Oklahoma City, the Spurs have now lost twice to the defending champion Thunder and can’t afford to fall behind 3-1 in the Western Conference finals.
Friday’s 123-108 loss in Game 3 marked the Spurs’ biggest loss in this year’s playoffs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 26 points and dished out 12 assists, but it was the Thunder bench that answered the call with Jalen Williams left out.
Most teams would hit the panic button if a member of their starting five was limited to just four of 11 playoff games due to injury, but not the Thunder.
OKC’s reserves outscored the Spurs bench 76 to 23, thanks to the stellar performances of Jared McCain, Alex Caruso, and Jaylin Williams.
Victor Wembanyama and Spurs have entered a place they must win. They are slight favorites with a 1.5 point spread and -140 on the money line in Game 4.
Thunder vs. Spurs Game 4 prediction, best bet
Coach Mark Daigneault’s next-man mentality lifted OKC to two wins away from its second straight trip to the NBA Finals.
Whether it’s McCain, Caruso, or Swiss-Army Knife defenseman Cason Wallace, this Thunder bench brings first-rate production that can obliterate the opposition in many ways.
They also play better on the road as a team, averaging 124.2 points per game on 59.4 percent shooting from 2s, 41.6 percent from 3s, and 85.6 percent from the line.
Like the Knicks, the Thunder had a significant break between the conference semifinals and finals, and it’s starting to show.
The Spurs made short work of the Timberwolves, shutting them out by 30 points in a Game 6 blowout. However, that series-winning performance, which featured 56% field goal shooting, has not carried over into this series.
The Thunder’s defense has limited the Spurs’ offensive efficiency to just 44% on 2s and 33.9% on 3s through three games. De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper combined to go 3-of-14 from 3-point range in Game 3.
The hope is that the Spurs can get better shooting days from their point guards, but between injuries to Fox and Harper, and a lack of experience in key moments, the tide has turned.
Even Wemby’s Game 1 masterclass of 26 points in the paint was canceled out by powerful defenders, Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams. The French phenom was limited to ten paint points in both Games 2 and 3.
Betting on the NBA?
While the writing isn’t exactly on the wall, the odds suggest the Thunder have taken control of the series, giving them 450 odds to win and +200 odds to close things out in five games at BetMGM.
The game’s leading scorer in Game 4 ended Gilgeous-Alexander’s streak of 7.5 assists.
San Antonio’s defense doubles him at will, and in five road games this postseason, the two-time MVP is averaging nine assists.
As for the game, I’ll take the switch below 218.5.
THE GAME: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 assists (+102, FanDuel) | Under 218.5 total points (-110, BetMGM)
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Mike Turay is a sports reporter and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and the UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA betting and NFL player prop for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook landscape, frequently testing and updating the latest apps and sites.
