Will a crowded Democratic field in the California governor’s race provide a rare opening for the GOP? – The Mercury News
By MICHAEL R. BLOOD, Associated Press
LOS ANGELES – How many Democrats are too many?
In California’s gubernatorial race, so many Democratic candidates are in such a frenzy that party insiders are fearing a historic disaster. It has happened statistically that the Democrats split their vote so much that the two Republicans advance from the beginning of June to the general election.
“It’s a parlor game in Sacramento right now – could this happen?” Democratic Alliance coordinator Paul Mitchell said.
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Uncertainty about the outcome comes from the basic system of the “high two” of the regime that is unpredictable. All candidates appear on one vote but only the top two finishers advance to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation. It is the first time since voters approved that plan more than a decade ago that there has been a gubernatorial race without a clear front-runner, which helps feed the “Why not me?” thinking among the large number of Democrats pouring into the race.
“There’s a very real possibility that it could be Republican-only on the November ballot,” the campaign of former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, a Democratic gubernatorial candidate, warned at a recent fundraiser.
A political shock in the making?
While it’s still a long shot, it’s hard to overstate the political shock that could come with two Republicans sitting atop California’s midterm polls. The district is known as a Democratic stronghold, and a GOP candidate has not lost a statewide election in two decades. It will also affect down-ballot races, including congressional battlegrounds that could decide control of the US House.
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Why are there so many candidates? The governor’s seat in California has always had a magnetic attraction – it’s one of the most powerful political arenas in the nation. The kingdom – itself – ranks as the fourth largest economy in the world. It is the country’s top agricultural producer and home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood. The federal budget includes about 350 billion in annual spending, an amount roughly equal to the market value of Netflix.
Candidates were lured through open elections
With Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom blocked by law from seeking a third term, the race is the most open for governor in a generation.
Lots of people have filed for bankruptcy, from college students to billionaires. Among them are at least nine Democrats who have the name recognition and fundraising machines to seriously compete.
That list includes current and former members of Congress – Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell and Xavier Becerra, who later served as the Biden administration’s chief health officer; former state administrator Betty Yee and schools superintendent Tony Thurmond; billionaire Tom Steyer; San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa; and Ian Calderon, former majority leader of the county Council.
As the Democrats take a large share of the same views, the candidates highlight some markers to break away from the pack. Swalwell, for example, campaigned in part for his role as House Speaker in Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial. Mahan, a newcomer to the race, has been critical of Newsom on crime and homelessness. Steyer is one of Mahan’s most vocal critics, saying he is too aligned with technology interests.
Some Democrats hope to see the field narrow on its own.
It would be better if “the people at the bottom step down,” said Democratic strategist Drexel Heard II, former executive director of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party. “You’re looking for people who will never break in.”
Uncertainty comes with the main ‘top two’
Mitchell said he used available polling data to run a series of simulations to test the possibility of two GOP results and found that it was possible, although there were far-reaching differences. The leading GOP candidates are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, both supporters of President Donald Trump.
California is one of the strongest Democratic states in the country. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1 statewide, Democrats have held every state office since 2010 and Republicans have been reduced to powerless observers in the Legislature.
In the first phase, the Democrats are expected to divide about 60% of the votes, the Republicans, 40%. Statistics become a challenge for Democrats when the party has a long list of loyalists in the race, reducing their share of the vote.
“It’s a small opportunity but it could be a big, big deal,” Mitchell said. The Democrats’ argument: “No one is going to come in and tell these low-level people that they can’t run.”
Republicans, on the other hand, are also worried about misleading statistics. Hilton has been calling for Bianco to step down in hopes that Republicans will unite to push one candidate to the November election.
“We’re not going to risk splitting the Republican vote and letting the Democrats in,” Hilton said in a recent interview.
Democrats want a national leader
The race bears some resemblance to the progressive Democratic Alliance’s 2028 contest, where a large field is coming together to fight for an open seat. Democrats are still regrouping from the national party’s debacle in 2024 and candidates in both races are exploring messages they hope will inspire voters during the midterms and beyond.
With Republicans in control of Congress and the White House and many Americans pessimistic about the future, the overflow of candidates is a sign of strength and frustration within the party, said Democratic consultant Antjuan Seawright.
The common denominator between races: “We have to learn how to focus on the game of expanding and strengthening our alliance,” Seawright said.
