The five gubernatorial candidates are “statistically dead heat” – The Mercury News
The race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom is still wide open and the candidates’ views on the state’s growing debt crisis may hold the key to governing, according to a new poll.
The Public Policy Institute of California released its latest statewide survey this week that found five in a “dead heat” among likely voters. The poll, which was conducted Feb. 3-11 and surveyed 1,657 residents, put former Fox News anchor Republican Steve Hilton in the lead with 14 percent, followed by former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter at 13%, County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 12%, Democratic East Bay Rep. 10%
Those results fall well within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, which ties the frontrunners, and are in line with other recent independent polls. A survey conducted by Emerson College on February 13-14 also found that Hilton (17.1%) leads the way, followed by Swalwell (14.1%), Bianco (13.5%), Porter (9.8%) and Steyer (8.8%).
“In three months from early June, the top two spots in the alderman race will be up for grabs,” said Mark Baldassare, director of PPIC’s Statewide Survey and Miller Chair in Public Policy, in a news release about the poll.
How each candidate would deal with the government’s inability to buy money and the cost of living was “very important” to 61% of likely voters – and even more so for residents under the age of 35, renters and those earning less than $40,000 a year.
“Voters feel stuck because of the cost of living, so affordability is going to be an issue for them,” Baldassare said.
Other candidates in the top five include: former health secretary and Attorney General Xavier Becerra at 5%, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 5%, former county manager Betty Yee at 5%, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan at 3%, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond at 2% and former state Assemblyman Ian Calderon.
Mahan, who enjoys strong support from Silicon Valley’s tech leaders, is a late entrant, joining the race on January 29, but he has had significant campaign funding.
Many California voters, however, are still undecided on who they would like to see succeed Newsom as he leaves office and looks to a potential presidential candidate in 2028. The PPIC poll showed that 10% of respondents did not have a preferred candidate compared to 21% of undecided voters in the Emerson College poll, while 48% of voters followed the race. nearby.
The release of the survey comes days after the California Democratic Party held its annual state convention in San Francisco last weekend where the party failed to rally behind a single candidate. With nine Democrats leading the race, pressure for minority candidates to run for office has increased amid growing concern that Democrats will split their party’s vote in the June 2 election, allowing two Republicans to run. California has a “jungle primary” system where the top two candidates, regardless of party, advance to the November election.
The PPIC survey also examined the temperature of policy decisions being made in Sacramento.
Newsom recently released his proposed budget for the 2026-2027 fiscal year, which has an estimated $2.9 billion deficit. In the survey, almost all respondents (91%) said the state of the government’s budget is a problem, although they are divided on how to close the gap, with 43% to cut spending and 39% to a combination of cuts and tax increases.
But many taxes did not appear popular in the polls. A majority of likely voters (55%) said they would prefer to pay lower taxes if it meant the state government would provide fewer services, and 61% of likely voters feel the current state and local tax system is unfair.
When it comes to taxes on the rich, this idea seems to be gaining ground as 61% of likely voters support raising taxes on the wealthiest residents of the state to balance the budget. The SEIU-UHW-backed California billionaires tax is currently being proposed for a November 2026 vote.
“It’s a case of ‘taxing you, not me,'” said Baldassare.
