Who Leads the Hart Trophy Race? Rotowire Experts Reveal Early MVP Favorites for the 2025–2026 NHL Season

The race for the NHL’s Hart Trophy — awarded annually to the league’s most valuable player — is shaping up to be a highly competitive storyline for the 2025-26 season. While statistical production often dominates MVP discussions, this year’s race highlights the growing importance of narrative momentum and the role that betting markets play in shaping opinion about candidates.

Nathan MacKinnon’s late 40th goal energized the stadium and the sportsbooks behind the Hart Trophy chances. His scoring pace and overall impact on the Colorado Avalanche made him a prime candidate. However, the MVP field remains crowded, with Connor McDavid continuing to deliver elite offensive production, rookie star Macklin Celebrini emerging as a disruptive contender, and several other stars producing numbers worthy of consideration.

Using scoring leaders, midseason polling trends, contract information, and future sportsbook data, this breakdown examines the top candidates and explains why each player remains part of the league’s dynamic MVP conversation.

Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon continues to set the pace in the race for the 2025-26 Hart Trophy. The Colorado Avalanche star recorded 93 points (second in the NHL), 40 goals (first), and a league-leading +48 rating, cementing his reputation as one of hockey’s greatest players.

By mid-season testing, MacKinnon had already produced 78 points and 36 goals, an average of 1.81 points per game. That hitting rate actually surpassed last year’s Hart Trophy-winning rate by nearly 0.25 points per game, highlighting just how different his season has been.

MacKinnon’s fitness impact has also been surprising. He recorded a solid 29 goals and 58 points, while the Avalanche held an impressive 53 goal differential (76-23) when he was on the ice. Those numbers underscore his importance to Colorado’s offensive and defensive success.

Midseason polls put MacKinnon firmly at the top of the Hart Trophy race. He leads the voting leaderboard with 73 points and 10 first-place picks, giving him a clear edge in the MVP conversation.

Odds and Betting Content

MacKinnon has also emerged as the betting favorite across several sportsbooks. Futures markets from DraftKings and BetMGM have him listed between −235 to −200, reflecting both his statistical dominance and the confidence bettors have in his consistency.

According to the odds, MacKinnon currently holds the shortest Hart Trophy odds at all major sportsbooks, including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars. His share of betting tickets and overall handle remains among the highest in the market, showing strong support from both casual fans and savvy bettors.

With the Hart Trophy race drawing continuing to attract betting interest, many fans are turning to platforms like RotoWire to explore sportsbook value beyond the odds alone. That includes tracking market movements, reviewing bets, and comparing offerssuch as those from Caesars Sportsbook, when considering the future of a potential MVP.

Connor McDavid

Whenever Connor McDavid is in action, the Hart Trophy conversation inevitably includes his name. The captain of the Edmonton Oilers also led the NHL with 96 points, while ranking second with 34 goals.

One of McDavid’s most impressive games came during his 17-point game, when he produced 41 points and 18 goals. During that time, he averaged 2.41 points per game, making for an impressive 198-point pace over a full 82-game season.

While maintaining that level of production for an entire season is unlikely, the series showed that McDavid can quickly change the MVP narrative. Sportsbooks responded accordingly, adjusting his Hart Trophy odds significantly during the surgery.

Midseason polls show McDavid with 59 poll points and three first-place votes, putting him firmly within striking distance of MacKinnon.

Contract details

McDavid is still one of the highest paid players in the NHL. His current contract is an eight-year, $100 million contract with an estimated annual value of $12.5 million. For the 2025-26 season specifically, his compensation includes a base salary of $3 million and a signing bonus of $7 million.

Odds and betting context

Although MacKinnon currently leads the betting market, McDavid is still one of the top contenders. Futures boards usually show prices between +600 and +1200. Earlier in the season McDavid was even listed as a favorite in some sports publications, highlighting his perennial MVP profile.

Macklin Celebrini

Every MVP race needs an inspiring story, and Macklin Celebrini provided an interesting narrative for the season. The rookie standout recorded 81 points (fourth in the NHL) and had 67 points in the midseason scouting, ranking third at the time.

Celebrini’s even-strength production has drawn comparisons to some of the most famous rookie seasons in NHL history. Compared to the legendary campaigns of Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin in 2005-06, his numbers remain impressive.

Recorded:

• 20 even-strength goals (tied for second in NHL)
• 49 equal points (second)
• +23 goal difference while on ice

The key question surrounding Celebrini is whether he can sustain his pace and disrupt the established dominance of players like MacKinnon and McDavid.

The midseason vote totals show Celebrini with 56 points and three first-place votes, confirming that voters took his rookie season seriously.

Odds and betting context

Sportsbook Futures consistently ranks Celebrini as MacKinnon’s closest competitor. His Hart Trophy odds usually vary between +215 and +470, depending on the sportsbook and betting time.

Most betting boards have him as the second shortstop behind MacKinnon, suggesting the market believes his rookie campaign could turn into a legitimate MVP if his production continues.

Nikita Kucherov

Tampa Bay Lightning star Nikita Kucherov continues to produce high offensive numbers. With 91 points, he currently ranks third in the NHL’s scoring race, cementing his reputation as one of the league’s most powerful players.

Kucherov has amassed nine Hart voting points over the course of the season, placing him among an extended group of MVP candidates.

Odds and betting context

According to futures markets, Kucherov usually appears between +500 and +650 in Hart Trophy odds. Those numbers reflect both his offensive consistency and the challenge of getting past the league’s best centers.

Still, Kucherov is still one of the NHL’s most productive wings, and last season’s strong surge could boost his standing in the MVP race.

Kirill Kaprizov

Kirill Kaprizov continues to anchor the Minnesota Wild offense. He is tied for third in the NHL with 32 goals, and advanced metrics place him among the league’s top impact players.

Despite his production, Kaprizov only received two points in the poll during the season, which shows the challenge of gaining MVP momentum outside of the league’s top division.

The contract

Kaprizov recently signed an eight-year, $136 million extension that will carry an average annual value of $17 million starting in the 2026-27 season.

Odds and betting context

Future odds put Kaprizov deep on the Hart Trophy boards, usually around +30,000. Those numbers highlight how difficult it can be to break into the top tier of MVP contenders even for one man.

Mikko Rantanen

Mikko Rantanen is still one of the NHL’s most reliable offensive producers and has collected 15 voting points in the Hart Trophy race.

However, playing alongside MacKinnon can sometimes complicate his MVP narrative. Voters often credit MacKinnon as the primary driver of Colorado’s success, which has overshadowed Rantanen’s contributions.

Odds and betting context

Rantanen’s Hart Trophy odds also appear deep in futures markets, typically around +30,000 according to odds comparisons.

Defenders and Scorers in the Hart Race

Although the Hart Trophy is usually dominated by the top players, several players at other positions have produced great seasons.

Zach Werenski

Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Zach Werenski received four points in the voting, making him one of the few defensemen mentioned in the MVP discussion. His ability to influence both offense and defense has drawn attention despite the prize-heavy nature of the forward.

Andrei Vasilevsky

Tampa Bay goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy continues to perform at a high level, posting a 2.11 goals-against average, a .920 save percentage, and a league-leading 27 wins. Despite those numbers, goals have historically had a long hard time in the Hart vote.

The Narrative Factor in the Hart Trophy Race

As the 2025–26 NHL season progresses, the race for the Hart Trophy will likely evolve in ways that go beyond simple statistical comparisons. Voters often weigh a combination of team success, historical context, and the broader narrative surrounding each player’s season.

MacKinnon’s dominance, McDavid’s historic scoring pace, and Celebrini’s incredible rookie campaign all make compelling cases for MVP consideration. Each player offers a different narrative, and that narrative tends to have an impact as the season approaches its final months.

The betting markets provide a useful snapshot of how the MVP race is viewed in real time. Odds changes often reflect both statistical trends and public sentiment, making the futures market the first indicator of momentum in the Hart Trophy debate.

Ultimately, the Hart Trophy winner will likely be the player who combines elite production with a defining story that captures the attention of the league’s voters. As the playoff race intensifies and the regular season draws to a close, the balance between numbers, narrative, and market perception will continue to shape one of the NHL’s most interesting prize races.