Sunday’s match between Arsenal and Chelsea will be counted among the most important points of the Premier League season.
Arsenal went into Matchweek 28 points ahead of Manchester City at the top, but it is the Cityzens who control their future with a game in hand and are moving forward with the Gunners.
Anything short of a win over Chelsea on Sunday will put Arsenal’s title hopes in serious jeopardy.
Nurses have installed Arsenal as -175 favorites for the London Derby at the Emirates on Sunday.
Chelsea vs. Arsenal, prediction
Arsenal’s season took a difficult turn with a draw against last-place Wolverhampton on February 18, but the Gunners responded brilliantly against their bitter rivals, Tottenham Hotspur, last Sunday.
Beating Spurs on any given day is a big thing for the Gunners, but that win was as important as any for Mikel Arteta’s side all season.
It put an end to the noise in this club that wants to avoid ending the fourth season in a row.
But the fact that Arsenal have disappointed their neighbors at home means they can breathe easy. Spurs have struggled in the league this season, and a tough test awaits the Gunners on Sunday.
As always, it has been a difficult season for Chelsea.
The Blues have, at times, looked like world-beaters, but have also endured their fair share of setbacks, including draws against Leeds and Burnley in their recent games.
That said, those results came on the back of a four-game winning streak, so it’s not like the Blues are coming into this game in a bad mood.
And it is important to note that Chelsea have managed to go toe-to-toe with the best of the Premier League this season. They drew Arsenal, 1-1, in their first meeting, and have a few weeks left in the draw against Manchester City. The Blues also beat Liverpool earlier in the campaign.
Chelsea’s style can also give Arsenal a lot of problems.
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While Mikel Arteta wants the Gunners to play a more composed, active style of football, the Blues look set to take their guard off the air and engage in high-stakes play.
No team in the Premier League has created more expected goals than the Blues, who also lead the league in total expected goals (for + against) this season.
Given the price, the pressure on Arsenal, and the balance of style, I favor Chelsea to pull off a big win in North London on Sunday.
The Play: Chelsea +475 (bet365 sportsbook)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-time profitable sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He likes to use game theory to help football players win bracket pools, get long shots, and learn to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
