Amid the worsening effects of climate change, the Philippines may experience fewer tropical storms, but super typhoons are more likely to develop in the coming decades, an expert said Monday.
Rafaela Jane P. Delfino, an assistant professor at the Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology at the University of the Philippines Diliman, made this statement, citing the findings of various studies.
Among these is a simulation from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) that compared historical typhoon data from 1971 to 2005 with future projections from 2036 to 2065.
Most models have shown that the country is likely to experience a stable or reduced number of tropical cyclones. However, more severe typhoons are likely.
“According to the number of storms, stable or decreasing… Pero yung mga mas malakas na bagyo mas dumadami sila [But the stronger storms are increasing],” said Ms. Delfino when she delivered her speech at the 161st National and 76th Meteorological Day press conference.
The Philippines currently has an average of 20 tropical cyclones per year.
Ms. Delfino said that this situation has already happened in recent years, citing PAGASA’s findings.
But the biggest concern, he said, is the rise in the number of supers
typhoons originating in or entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at the same time.
The annual average of major hurricanes entering the PAR increased from 1.5 per year between 1993 and 2002 to three per year between 2003 and 2020—more than 100%.
Super typhoons are a category of tropical cyclones in the Philippines, with maximum sustained wind speeds exceeding 185 kilometers per hour.
At this level, PAGASA is raising Storm Signal No. 5 in affected areas, as winds can be a serious threat to both life and property.
Tropical typhoons such as Haiyan (locally Yolanda), Goni (Rolly), and Rai (Odette) were classified as super typhoons, known for their devastating effects.
Ms. Delfino also said that rainfall associated with tropical storms has increased by 6-7% in recent studies compared to pre-industrial times and is expected to increase by 16% in the future.
What causes this? Ms. Delfino explained that human activities, such as increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, have contributed to global warming, accelerating climate change and its effects, especially in the last 200 years.
He added that the continued warm waters caused by man-made factors make tropical storms stronger, increase their size, and contribute to faster expansion, making hurricanes more aggressive.
“This leads to serious injuries and loss of life and, more often than not, prevents sustainable development,” said Ms. Delfino.
Natural disasters, such as typhoons, cost the Philippines about 0.5% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) per year, with losses reaching about 4.5% of GDP in 2013 due to Super Typhoon Haiyan, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 2026 report.
Severe weather events also have lasting economic effects, reducing local economic activity up to 2.2% immediately, with a 1.7 percentage point impact still felt five years later, even after disaster adaptation, relief, and reconstruction efforts.
Without mitigating climate change, the Philippines could see a GDP loss of about 5% in 2040 and up to 18% in 2070 compared to the situation without climate change, the report said.
Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Monday warned that the Earth’s climate is more erratic than ever in recorded history, as greenhouse gases continue to warm the atmosphere and oceans and accelerate the melting of ice.
The WMO said the years 2015 to 2025 were the 11th hottest years on record, with 2025 ranking among the second and third hottest years at about 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 average.
This imbalance increases the risk of extreme weather events, including intense tropical storms, extreme rainfall, extreme heat waves, and rising sea levels.
The report calls for urgent action, emphasizing the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions and accelerate the transition to clean energy.
It also calls for strengthening early warning systems and climate resilience planning to protect communities and economies. – Edg Adrian A. Eva
