Pac-12 MBB power ratings: The new and old versions of the conference have a lot in common
Welcome to the latest installment of the Pac-12 men’s basketball powerhouse Hotline, our weekly assessment of the reinvented conference using results, stats and a dash of logic. Power ratings will be published every Monday until the end of the regular season. Here is last week’s program.
The absent conference follows the same conclusion on Selection Sunday as the previous conference.
With March Madness fast approaching, teams in the rebuilt Pac-12 should get at least two bids and possibly four. That represents the total expected for the 10 Pac-12 schools now spread across the Big 12, Big Ten and ACC.
In the postseason, only Arizona is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team. USC, UCLA and Cal (yes, Cal) are on the bubble with five weeks to go.
Six others appear to have to win their conference championships to make the 68-team field.
All in all, schools not named Arizona have produced a lot of mediocrity led by UCLA, where coach Mick Cronin continues to contend for the Big Ten Schedule, and injury-depleted Oregon, facing its worst season under Dana Altman.
Arizona State appears intent on firing Bobby Hurley. Colorado could do the same with Tad Boyle. Stanford and Washington improved under Kyle Smith and Danny Sprinkle, respectively, but remained in the middle. Utah is struggling with rookie coach Alex Jensen.
Meanwhile, the rebuilt Pac-12, which goes online next season, has one championship bid secured courtesy of Gonzaga. But Utah State is very close to a lock for the No. 1 ranking. 25 NET.
Like the Bruins and Trojans, San Diego State is on the championship bubble and needs a tight end. The fourth member of the new conference, Boise State, has a very narrow path to the at-large field.
Our best guess based on current resumes and upcoming schedules: The former Pac-12 counts two bids (Arizona and USC or UCLA) while the new Pac-12 collects three (Gonzaga, Utah State and San Diego State).
Clarity should appear by the end of the month. But regardless of the final figure, the fact that the old and new versions of the convention are in comparable positions shows how badly the former members did, with one exception.
In power measurements…
(Results and NET ranks till Sunday)
1. Utah State (20-3)
Results: won at New Mexico 86-66 and Wyoming 85-83
NET Level: No. 25
Comments: Given the opponent, location and score, Utah’s win in Albuquerque stands as the most impressive conference win of the Mountain West season, so far. And combined with the loss to Gonzaga, the Aggies moved up in the power rankings for the first time this season. (Previous: 2)
2. Gonzaga (23-2)
Results: lost at Portland 87-80, won at Oregon State 81-61
NET Level: No. 7
Comments: The Hotline has not been wrong about anything in at least 20 minutes. But it’s very hard to see a path to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the Zags following that Portland upset. They are now the only team in the top 20 of the NET rankings to lose in Quadrant III. (Previous: 1)
3. San Diego State (17-6)
Results: beat Wyoming 72-63, won over Air Force 88-54
NET Level: Number 42
Comments: The Aztecs have a one-point loss at Grand Canyon and a five-point loss at Utah State to stay undefeated in Mountain West play. More important: They are Troy’s (No. 115 in the NET) lone home loss since being perfect against Quadrant II, III and IV opponents. Without that effect, their profile will look remarkably different. (Previous: 3)
4. Boise State (15-9)
Results: beat Nevada 91-87 (OT), won at New Mexico 91-90
NET Level: No. 54
Comments: Not only have the Broncos won six of their last seven, but the schedule has set them up to win five of their last seven. And 11 of 14 wins would be a great way to end the regular season. (Previous: 4)
5. Oregon State (13-13)
Results: beat Washington State 74-64, lost to Gonzaga 81-61
NET Level: No. 203
Comments: The Beavers’ late-season momentum, courtesy of three wins in their last four games, is equal parts surprising and fleeting. They have upcoming trips to San Francisco, Seattle and Santa Clara. (Previous: 6)
6. Washington State (11-15)
Results: lost to Oregon State 74-64 and Santa Clara 96-92
NET Level: Number 133
Comments: The Cougars are on track to finish with a 9-9 record in WCC play, and that might be good enough for the No. 4 seed in Las Vegas and a bye to the quarterfinals. To that end, next week’s home game against Pacific is crucial. (Previous: 5)
7. Fresno State (11-12)
Results: beat UNLV 98-96, lost to Nevada 69-59
NET Level: Number 139
Comments: Not on our Mountain West bingo card for 2026: That Fresno State will enter the extra mile with a chance to finish above UNLV in the standings. But with four weeks to go, the Bulldogs are within one game of the Rebels. (Previous: 7)
8. Colorado State (13-10)
Results: beat San Jose State 65-57
NET Level: Number 98
Comments: The Rams’ 10-point win over Grand Canyon in early January is on the short list of wildest results so far in the Mountain West, and there have been few surprises. (Previous: 8)
9. Texas State (15-11)
Results: won at Georgia Southern 77-71, defeated Western Michigan 77-61
NET Level: Number 255
Comments: That’s just six of eight for the upstart Bobcats, who will host Sun Belt leader Troy this week. (Previous: 9)
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on social media X: @WilnerHotline
