So, is California’s unemployment market slowing down or entering the throes of job cuts?
My trusty spreadsheet compared two federal job statistics: Unemployment insurance claims – a summary of who recently lost their jobs and who qualifies for those benefits – versus layoffs and layoffs – statistics on the pace at which management cuts workers.
Unfortunately, this employment data only adds to the mystery of the economy, statewide and nationally. And these types of mixed messages are helping to undermine consumer confidence.
Let’s start with the new California frivolous claims. During the 12 months ending in February, they ran 1% below the previous 12-month period.
That’s the 22nd best performance among the states and tops the national decline of 0.3%.
Claims fell in 24 states, with Wisconsin up 16%, Indiana down 14%, and Massachusetts and Arizona down 13%. The biggest jumps were seen in Kentucky at 32%, the District of Columbia at 26%, Virginia at 24% and Delaware at 21%.
A different picture
The layoff figures paint a somewhat different, and disappointing, picture of employment. It is indeed a troubling trend to watch carefully.
Note that tracking “involuntary separations” includes workers who are not eligible for unemployment insurance or who delay filing for a variety of reasons, including severance pay. Don’t forget, some workers find new jobs before applying for unemployment benefits.
Also, consider that unemployment claims are the actual number of claims made by government employment agencies. Layoff statistics are estimates taken from a survey of employers.
Again, these numbers don’t come out quickly. So, the latest figures are for December.
Caveats noted, California’s random classification throughout 2025 has increased by 18% compared to 2024. Sadly, this was the seventh best performance among the states. Layoffs in the US increased by 21% and increased in all states.
Layoffs grew the fastest in Rhode Island (33%), Kentucky (29%), and New Jersey and Tennessee (27%). The smallest increases in layoffs were in New York (15%), Connecticut (16%), New Hampshire (17%), and Pennsylvania (17%).
If nothing else, the increasing layoffs are bad in economic sense, as workers fear both “Who’s next?” and “Can I avoid long-term unemployment if I am laid off?”
Good days
Look at these employment dynamics compared to what was seen between 2015 and 1019, the pre-pandemic years that some consider the good old days.
California’s most recent unemployment claims rate was less than 3% of the 2015-19 pace, ranking 13th lowest among states. Nationwide, claims fell by 9% over the period.
Among the 40 states with declining claims from 2015-19, the largest declines were in Alaska (56%), Delaware (49%), Kansas (42%), and Wisconsin (39%). The biggest increases in claims were in DC, up 148%, Colorado, up 32%, Minnesota, up 25%, and Utah, up 22%.
Even the jump in layoffs looks modest when you look back at 2015-19.
California’s cut is only 6% higher, ranking 14th highest among states. Nationally, layoffs decreased by 4% from 2015-19.
Job cuts are down in 31 states from pre-pandemic levels, led by Pennsylvania, down 27%; Alaska, down 21%; and Missouri and Louisiana, down 20%. The biggest benefits? Idaho (50%), Nevada (41%), Rhode Island (31%) and Connecticut (23%).
However, economic history will not easily ease the nerves of workers who feel job security in early 2026,
Jonathan Lansner is a business writer for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
