England and Croatia have a habit of meeting each other in major international football tournaments.
Croatia defeated England in the semi-finals of the 2018 World Cup in Russia, and they met again in the group stage at Euro 2020.
Many faces have changed in both camps since they last competed, but the strengths and weaknesses of each camp haven’t changed much.
England are one of the favorites to win the World Cup, so it’s no surprise to see them at -140 odds on the three way moneyline for Wednesday’s headliner in Dallas.
England vs. Croatia odds, forecast
Unbelievably, Luka Modric is still in Croatia.
The 2018 World Cup Ballon d’Or winner, Modric is just three months away from his 41st birthday and is already a successful midfield player.
Modric, along with his senior team-mates Ivan Perisic, 37, and Andrej Kramaric, 34, have turned Croatia into one of the world’s biggest powers over the past decade.
And while Croatia don’t have as many technically gifted players as Spain, England, or France, they play anonymously under Zlatko Dalic, who was in charge. Vatreni since 2017.
Dalic led Croatia to the World Cup finals in 2018 and the semifinals in 2022 by making them difficult to beat.
Croatia have many very good players, but they are not a foolproof team. If the situation calls for it, the Croats will be comfortable in 4-4-2 and defend until they get a chance to counter.
That style often gave England fits, like The Three Lions they have a lot of great ball movers.
They want to put the ball on the carpet and keep things moving, hoping to make room for Harry Kane to do what he does best.
That will be easier said than done against this dogged Croatian side, though.
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Not only do the Croats have a couple of good defenders in Josko Gvardiol and 19-year-old Luka Vuskovic, but they could give England problems in the middle of the park.
Declan Rice has a legitimate claim to be the best midfielder in the world right now, but he will be up against a number of experienced players in Modric and Mateo Kovacic.
As the game progresses, I expect England’s aggressive possession style to trouble Croatia. Vatreni just don’t have the depth or speed to deal with The Three Lions more than 90 minutes, so cracks will eventually appear. It may take some time to get to that point.
England should have enough to win, but the score will be very small. Expect Croatia to make things difficult for Thomas Tuchel in his first World Cup match in charge The Three Lions.
Same match parlay: England to win again under 2.5 goals (+225, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-time profitable sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He likes to use game theory to help football players win bracket pools, get long shots, and learn to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
