Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour betting tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and frequent guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2026 US Open, which starts on Thursday.
And we have arrived, once again, at the door of the great competition. It feels like we’ve been building to this for a long time. Did the look for the 2026 US Open begin immediately after Aaron Rai lifted the Wanamaker Trophy at Aronimink last month? Did it start at Colonial Country Club when we noted that the course could be a sign of things to come for the US Open? Perhaps it started eight years ago, after Brooks Koepka bogeyed the 72nd hole to finish 1-over and win his second consecutive United States Open — the last time at Shinnecock Hills on Father’s Day for the US National Championship.
Located on the South Fork of Long Island in Southampton, New York, Shinnecock Hills is one of the most visited golf courses in the world. It is one of the first five golf courses established by the USGA, and this Thursday will mark the sixth time it has hosted the US Open. Exposed to all elements, the golf course is treeless and sits less than 20 miles south of Peconic Bay and just a few miles north of the Atlantic Ocean. It makes for a sand, wind-swept, beach, links, brutal test of golf that has seen just three players finish below par among the last four US Opens it has hosted.
While we can admire its demands and the level of difficulty it presents in what many consider golf’s toughest tournament, the USGA has also been heavily criticized for mishandling Shinnecock in 2018 and, in particular, the US Open in 2004. It’s a very difficult and delicate balance: trying to bring the golf course to the extreme, getting out of control – allowing Shinnecock to allow it. Climate changes almost immediately, the battle with Mother Nature can be very easy to lose.
Flash forward to 2026 and we have a course with fairways nearly 50 yards wide, five inches, and “schmutz” or “gunch,” also known as wispy heather and knee-high fescue that sits one step from the mark than the rough and will swallow both golf balls and US Open prospects in one tournament. The point is that it appears that the USGA has given itself a lot of latitude in fairways to allow them to be tighter and faster without being unfair. The greens are very large, sloping and unchanged, mostly Poa Annua with a little Bentgrass interspersed. What’s interesting about vegetables, however, is that they play “small.” Besides the actual square footage above the tour average, with all the humps, bumps, and fairways shaved off, the fairway’s small fairways make hitting and staying on the green two very different and challenging pieces of the puzzle. Add in the wind, sunshine, lack of humidity and green speed, and here we have the balance the USGA is trying to negotiate between now and Sunday evening.
This all depends on the number of winning points Jeff Sherman (@Golfodds) posted in the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook of Under/Over 278.5, which is 1.5 under par.
The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, with some chance of rain here and there and high winds during the four days, Thursday and Friday looks very windy, with gusts better than 30 MPH. Yes, I think there will be carnage – but let’s hope the USGA can dance with Mother Nature, and together they can provide a perfect test.
We noted two weeks ago in our Pre-Betting Guide our position on Xander Schauffele (20-1), Tommy Fleetwood (25-1), Matt Fitzpatrick (25-1) and our long game on Daniel Berger (180-1). Since then I’ve added three more medium price options and one long image.
Russell Henley (45-1)
Each season, I like to look at who performs well at the Colonial as I believe that can translate to success at the US Open. If you can’t beat them, join them, I guess, as it was Henley who beat our picks of Eric Cole, Ryan Gerard and Mac Meissner to win in Fort Worth at the end of last month.
Henley is a knock-down, plodder-type player, but he’s also won at Bay Hill, competed at Augusta National and Torrey Pines, and in the last five years or so, has risen to become one of the best golfers in the world. He was 10th last year at Royal Portrush and fifth the year before at Royal Troon. Henley finished 10th last summer at Oakmont and was seventh the year before at Pinehurst. He is No. 1 on the PGA Tour in both Driving Accuracy and Scrambling. He is 33rd in Strokes Gained: Putting and ranks second in Proximity from 150-175 yards. His next move could be the biggest win of the tournament.
Patrick Reed (60-1)
Reed never jumped out at me as a “US Open type” player. Jim Furyk, Jeff Maggert, Corey Pavin, Lee Janzen kind of stuff, right? Reed is an imaginative, creative, short-game wizard rather than a fairways and greens plodder – but Shinnecock is a different kind of beast than, say, a traditional US Open setup like the Olympic Club.
The coastal, windswept landscape and links-style layout make it a match for the Open Championship. The skill required for these green buildings is very similar to Mastery. This is where Mhlanga checks the boxes. With wide fairways and an emphasis on the short game, that’s Patrick Reed’s wheelhouse – as evidenced by his fourth-place finish here in 2018. Reed was also 12th at Royal Troon in 2016 and has finished in the top 10 three times at the Valspar Championship – one of our associated courses – including twice as runner-up. Despite a much shortened playing schedule as he returns to the PGA Tour after leaving the LIV circuit, Reed finished 12th at The Masters and 10th at the PGA Championship last month. I expect him to re-enter this week.
Kurt Kitayama (90-1)
I saw the UNLV Rebel here in Las Vegas while I was out running errands last weekend. As we continue our weekly search for outright winners, perhaps this was an attempt to put a clue in front of my face. I’m not sure I believe in those things, but the game makes sense in my mind – if a guy can get a hot putter for a few days.
Kitayama is currently playing excellent golf, with top-10 finishes at two straight Signature Events — the City and Doral — followed by a 10th-place finish at the PGA Championship and a 25th-place finish at the Memorial two weeks ago. He is one of the best in the game as far as Ball Striking, Total Driving, Greens in Regulation and Proximity from 150-200 yards. And really, his short game numbers aren’t bad. Being able to consistently find the fairways and greens should give Kitayama a very good chance. If he can pitch and average or better, I believe he’s a very good hitter. In my mind, he’s very JJ Spaun-esque from 2025 in Oakmont.
I was tempted to add some picks here, playing with Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, etc., but decided to wait until Friday or even Saturday evening to see if any in-game play made sense. So I’m saving a few letters for later – if needed – but hopefully, we can get in successfully and dance with the USGA and Mother Nature to have a great trip.
Here are the first four options in our betting preview.
Tommy Fleetwood (25-1)
On May 17, I made my US Open debut to win the tournament outright. Fleetwood was listed at 20-1 almost everywhere and I didn’t like that number. I saw the 25 coming and jumped on it. As it stands right now, 28-1 or 30-1 seems to be easily available. Fleetwood shot a record 63 on Sunday in 2018 to nearly catch Koepka, only one shot behind. One could argue that the US Open has been a huge success for Fleetwood, with three out of five finishes and a 16th place finish at Pinehurst in 2024. The Englishman also finished 16th twice and third once at the Valspar Championship. He was fifth at Southern Hills in 2022. Fleetwood ranks ninth on Tour in driving accuracy, 56th in SG: Approach, and sixth in SG: Around the Green. If the same turf surface means anything – and it does – Fleetwood was fourth this year at Pebble Beach and seventh at Riviera.
Matt Fitzpatrick (25-1)
Four days after making the match at Fleetwood, I added another Englishman to the card. Fitzpatrick has won three times already this season, including the Valspar Championship, and won the US Open in 2022. Like Fleetwood, he also finished fifth at Southern Hills in 2022. He is currently ranked fourth on Tour in SG: Approach, eighth in SG: Around the Green, seventh in Greens in Regulation, and sixth in driving. Fitzpatrick finished 12th at Shinnecock in 2018.
Xander Schauffele (20-1)
Schauffele has won two majors in 2024 – the PGA Championship and the Open Championship (at Royal Troon, of course) – but like Fleetwood, his most successful championship of his entire career may also be the US Open. He was sixth at Shinnecock in 2018. He has played in the national championship nine times and has never missed one. His worst finish is 14th, and he has finished in the top 10 seven times. He was seventh at Pinehurst in 2024 and 13th at Southern Hills in 2022, and has gone 12-5-12-4 in four consecutive visits to the Valspar Championship. Schauffele is ranked 18th on Tour in overall driving, 29th in SG: Approach, 28th in SG: Putting, and 11th in scoring.
Daniel Berger (180-1)
Time for the long bomb. I’ve seen anywhere from 100-1 to as high as 200-1 on Berger to win the 2026 US Open. He was sixth at Shinnecock in 2018 and seventh at Torrey Pines (poa annua greens) at the 2021 US Open. Speaking of poa annua, Berger also won at Pebble Beach. We noted in our preview of the Charles Schwab Challenge that Colonial Country Club would be a good indicator of US Open success, and Berger won at Colonial. He finished eleventh at Valspar and eighth at Royal St. George’s in 2021. Berger ranks 10th in SG: Approach this season and 45th in shooting accuracy. Sounds like an excellent start for a player at 200-1.
We’ll be back on June 16 for our full full card of the 126th US Open Championship and the third major of 2026.
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